San Martin Tucuman 61%Draw 22%Gimnasia Y Tiro 17%Expected goals 1.45 – 0.57
83%
Betarazi pick
San Martin Tucuman or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: San Martin Tucuman to win @ 1.91 – our chance 61% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultSan Martin Tucuman to win ✓61% · @1.91
Double chanceSan Martin Tucuman or draw ✓83% · @1.20
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · @1.53
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓67% · fair 1.49
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓19% · fair 5.19
San Martin Tucuman vs Gimnasia Y Tiro: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
22:30 WAT, Sunday 4 October: San Martin Tucuman v Gimnasia Y Tiro in the Primera Nacional, played at Estadio La Ciudadela. In the table, San Martin Tucuman are 10th, lower half, on 47 points after 36 matches; Gimnasia Y Tiro are 8th (upper half) with 52.
Current form
San Martin Tucuman, last 5: DLWLD Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Gimnasia Jujuy, away. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Gimnasia Y Tiro, last 5: WLDWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Atletico DE Rafaela, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Head to head
When they last met (17 May 2026) it ended Gimnasia Y Tiro 1–0 San Martin Tucuman.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give San Martin Tucuman 1.5 xG, Gimnasia Y Tiro 0.6 xG – a total near 2.0. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 67%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – San Martin Tucuman 61%, draw 22%, Gimnasia Y Tiro 17%.
Lower-risk option: San Martin Tucuman or draw (83%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: NG (52%) at 1.53.
Price worth noting: San Martin Tucuman to win @1.91 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 61%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was San Martin Tucuman or draw (83%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: San Martin Tucuman 1–0 Gimnasia Y Tiro. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
San Martin Tucuman61%fair 1.64 · @1.91
Draw22%fair 4.47 · @2.90
Gimnasia Y Tiro17%fair 6.02 · @4.33
2.02Expected goals
1.45San Martin Tucuman xG
0.57Gimnasia Y Tiro xG
48%Both score
33%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–019%
2–014%
0–013%
1–111%
2–18%
0–18%
From our goals model: San Martin Tucuman 1.5 – 0.6 Gimnasia Y Tiro expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for San Martin Tucuman vs Gimnasia Y Tiro?
Our pick is San Martin Tucuman or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win San Martin Tucuman vs Gimnasia Y Tiro?
On our numbers San Martin Tucuman have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Gimnasia Y Tiro 17%.
How many goals will there be in San Martin Tucuman vs Gimnasia Y Tiro?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 33% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for San Martin Tucuman vs Gimnasia Y Tiro?
Our predicted score is San Martin Tucuman 1–0 Gimnasia Y Tiro, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is San Martin Tucuman vs Gimnasia Y Tiro?
San Martin Tucuman vs Gimnasia Y Tiro (Primera Nacional) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio La Ciudadela.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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