Atletico DE Rafaela v Quilmes Prediction & Expected Goals (17 Oct) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultAtletico DE Rafaela to win ✓40% · @2.40

Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.40

Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · @1.67

GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓73% · fair 1.37

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓16% · fair 6.43

Atletico DE Rafaela vs Quilmes: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Atletico DE Rafaela welcome Quilmes to Estadio Nuevo Monumental for a Primera Nacional fixture on Saturday 17 October (01:00 WAT). In the table, Atletico DE Rafaela are 11th, lower half, on 47 points after 36 matches; Quilmes are 13th (lower half) with 45. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

Atletico DE Rafaela, last 5: LLLWL Their latest outing: 0–4 defeat to Midland, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 2.3 conceded per game.

Quilmes, last 5: LDWLW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Agropecuario, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Momentum favours Quilmes, collecting 1.2 points per game to 0.5 for Atletico DE Rafaela.

Head to head

When they last met (31 May 2026) it ended Quilmes 2–0 Atletico DE Rafaela.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Atletico DE Rafaela 0.9 xG, Quilmes 0.9 xG – a total near 1.8. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 73%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Atletico DE Rafaela 40%, draw 25%, Quilmes 35%.
GG/NG: NG (52%) at 1.67.
Price worth noting: Quilmes to win @3.10 – the bookmaker implies 32%, our ratings say 35%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Not both teams to score (52%, odds 1.67). Most likely score in line with that pick: Atletico DE Rafaela 0–0 Quilmes. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Atletico DE Rafaela40%fair 2.52 · @2.40

Draw25%fair 3.98 · @2.80

Quilmes35%fair 2.84 · @3.10

1.80Expected goals

0.94Atletico DE Rafaela xG

0.86Quilmes xG

48%Both score

27%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

0–017%

1–016%

0–114%

1–113%

2–07%

2–16%

From our goals model: Atletico DE Rafaela 0.9 – 0.9 Quilmes expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Atletico DE Rafaela to win ✓	40%	2.52	2.40
Double chance	Either team to win ✓	75%	1.34	1.40
Both teams to score	Not both teams to score ✓	52%	1.94	1.67
Draw no bet	Atletico DE Rafaela (draw no bet) ✓	53%	1.89	–
Asian handicap	Quilmes +0.5 (Asian handicap) ✗	64%	1.56	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✗	54%	1.86	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✓	73%	1.37	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	89%	1.12	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	96%	1.04	–
First team to score	Atletico DE Rafaela to score first ✓	44%	2.29	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✗	53%	1.90	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Draw / FT Draw ✗	24%	4.10	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–0 ✓	16%	6.43	–

Atletico DE Rafaela – last 6

LLLWLL

10 Oct	@ Midland	0–4	L
4 Oct	vs Atlanta	2–3	L
27 Sep	@ Gimnasia Y Tiro	0–1	L
19 Sep	vs San Martin Tucuman	4–2	W
13 Sep	@ Gimnasia Jujuy	1–2	L
6 Sep	@ Agropecuario	0–2	L

1.2Scored / game

2.3Conceded / game

50%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

Quilmes – last 6

LDWLWL

10 Oct	vs Agropecuario	0–1	L
3 Oct	@ Tristan Suarez	0–0	D
26 Sep	vs Club Atlético Güemes	2–0	W
20 Sep	@ Chacarita Juniors	0–3	L
12 Sep	vs San Martin S.J.	1–0	W
7 Sep	@ Nueva Chicago	0–1	L

0.5Scored / game

0.8Conceded / game

0%Both scored

17%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tristan Suarez	36	16	16	4	+18	64
2	Atlanta	36	19	5	12	+8	62
3	Temperley	36	16	13	7	+12	61
4	Gimnasia Jujuy	36	16	10	10	+4	58
5	Midland	36	15	10	11	+14	55
6	Deportivo Maipu	36	14	10	12	+9	52
7	Colegiales	36	14	10	12	+4	52
8	Gimnasia Y Tiro	36	14	10	12	+2	52
9	San Martin S.J.	36	13	12	11	+6	51
10	San Martin Tucuman	36	11	14	11	+2	47
11	Atletico DE Rafaela	36	12	11	13	-6	47
12	Agropecuario	36	12	10	14	-8	46
13	Quilmes	36	12	9	15	+3	45
14	Chacarita Juniors	36	12	6	18	-6	42
15	Almagro	36	11	9	16	-11	42
16	Patronato	36	7	17	12	-6	38
17	Nueva Chicago	36	9	10	17	-11	37
18	Club Atlético Güemes	36	6	9	21	-34	27

Team

Pts

+18

+12

+14

-6

-8

-6

-11

-6

-11

-34

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Atletico DE Rafaela vs Quilmes?

Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 52% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.

Who will win Atletico DE Rafaela vs Quilmes?

On our numbers Atletico DE Rafaela have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Quilmes 35%.

How many goals will there be in Atletico DE Rafaela vs Quilmes?

We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 27% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Atletico DE Rafaela vs Quilmes?

Our predicted score is Atletico DE Rafaela 0–0 Quilmes, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.

When is Atletico DE Rafaela vs Quilmes?

Atletico DE Rafaela vs Quilmes (Primera Nacional) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Nuevo Monumental.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Atletico DE Rafaela v Quilmes: numbers & prediction