Both teams scoreNot both teams to score54% · @1.50
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals84% · fair 1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–017% · fair 5.78
Deportivo Merlo vs Ituzaingó: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 11 April the Primera B Metropolitana brings Deportivo Merlo against Ituzaingó at Jose Manuel Moreno Stadium. Kick-off: 22:00 WAT. In the table, Deportivo Merlo are 15th, lower half, on 49 points after 42 matches; Ituzaingó are 22nd (in the drop zone) with 17. There are 32 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Deportivo Merlo, last 5: LWDWL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Sportivo Italiano, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Ituzaingó, last 5: LDDLD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Argentino de Merlo, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game.
Momentum favours Deportivo Merlo, collecting 1.4 points per game to 0.5 for Ituzaingó.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Deportivo Merlo 1.4 xG, Ituzaingó 0.7 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 65%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Deportivo Merlo 55%, draw 28%, Ituzaingó 17%.
Lower-risk option: Deportivo Merlo or draw (83%) at 1.13.
GG/NG: NG (54%) at 1.50.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (65%, odds 1.42). Most likely score in line with that pick: Deportivo Merlo 1–0 Ituzaingó. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Deportivo Merlo55%fair 1.82 · @1.80
Draw28%fair 3.61 · @3.10
Ituzaingó17%fair 5.76 · @4.50
2.10Expected goals
1.42Deportivo Merlo xG
0.69Ituzaingó xG
46%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–017%
2–012%
0–012%
1–112%
2–18%
0–18%
From our goals model: Deportivo Merlo 1.4 – 0.7 Ituzaingó expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Deportivo Merlo
Ituzaingó
Attack vs Primera B Metropolitana average
-17%
-25%
Goals conceded vs average
+12%
+47%
Our expected goals here
1.43
0.72
Our own ratings from every Primera B Metropolitana result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Deportivo Merlo to win
55%
1.82
1.80
Double chance
Deportivo Merlo or draw
83%
1.21
1.13
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score
54%
1.86
1.50
Draw no bet
Deportivo Merlo (draw no bet)
76%
1.32
–
Asian handicap
Ituzaingó +1 (Asian handicap)
62%
1.60
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
61%
1.63
1.55
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
65%
1.53
1.42
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
84%
1.19
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
94%
1.07
–
First team to score
Deportivo Merlo to score first
59%
1.69
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
47%
2.11
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Deportivo Merlo / FT Deportivo Merlo
33%
3.07
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
17%
5.78
–
Recent results
Deportivo Merlo – last 5
LWDWL
29 Mar
@ Sportivo Italiano
1–2
L
5 Mar
@ Real Pilar
3–1
W
28 Feb
vs UAI Urquiza
0–0
D
22 Feb
@ Villa Dalmine
1–0
W
16 Feb
vs Excursionistas
1–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
60%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Ituzaingó – last 6
LDDLDL
3 Apr
vs Argentino de Merlo
0–1
L
21 Mar
vs Talleres Remedios
0–0
D
15 Mar
@ Sportivo Italiano
0–0
D
4 Mar
@ San Martín Burzaco
0–3
L
28 Feb
vs Brown DE Adrogue
1–1
D
22 Feb
@ Villa San Carlos
1–3
L
0.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Deportivo Merlo and Ituzaingó.
What is the prediction for Deportivo Merlo vs Ituzaingó?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.42.
Who will win Deportivo Merlo vs Ituzaingó?
On our numbers Deportivo Merlo have a 55% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Ituzaingó 17%.
How many goals will there be in Deportivo Merlo vs Ituzaingó?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Deportivo Merlo vs Ituzaingó?
Our predicted score is Deportivo Merlo 1–0 Ituzaingó, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Deportivo Merlo vs Ituzaingó?
Deportivo Merlo vs Ituzaingó (Primera B Metropolitana) kicks off on Saturday 11 April 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time) at Jose Manuel Moreno Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
