Excursionistas v Real Pilar Prediction & Expected Goals (26 Sep) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultExcursionistas to win ✓47% · @2.05

Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.36

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @1.95

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.23

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.91

Excursionistas vs Real Pilar: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Real Pilar travel to face Excursionistas on Saturday 26 September in the Primera B Metropolitana, with Excursionistas Stadium the venue – the ball rolls at 00:00 WAT. In the table, Excursionistas are 1st, leading the league, on 81 points after 42 matches; Real Pilar are 7th (upper half) with 66. There are 15 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.

Current form

Excursionistas, last 5: WWWLW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over UAI Urquiza, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.

Real Pilar, last 5: WWLDW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Arsenal Sarandi, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Excursionistas 1.3 xG, Real Pilar 0.9 xG – a total near 2.2. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 38%, GG 52%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Excursionistas 47%, draw 25%, Real Pilar 29%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.95.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (52%, odds 1.95). Most likely score in line with that pick: Excursionistas 1–1 Real Pilar. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Excursionistas47%fair 2.15 · @2.05

Draw25%fair 4.04 · @2.80

Real Pilar29%fair 3.48 · @3.60

2.22Expected goals

1.29Excursionistas xG

0.93Real Pilar xG

52%Both score

38%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–014%

1–113%

0–011%

0–110%

2–09%

2–18%

From our goals model: Excursionistas 1.3 – 0.9 Real Pilar expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Excursionistas to win ✓	47%	2.15	2.05
Double chance	Either team to win ✓	75%	1.33	1.36
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✗	52%	1.92	1.95
Draw no bet	Excursionistas (draw no bet) ✓	62%	1.62	–
Asian handicap	Real Pilar +1 (Asian handicap) ✗	73%	1.37	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	65%	1.54	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✗	62%	1.62	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	82%	1.23	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	93%	1.08	–
First team to score	Excursionistas to score first ✓	52%	1.93	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✗	47%	2.13	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Excursionistas / FT Excursionistas ✓	26%	3.86	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	8%	11.91	–

Excursionistas – last 6

WWWLWW

19 Sep	@ UAI Urquiza	2–1	W
13 Sep	vs Villa Dalmine	3–0	W
8 Sep	vs Ituzaingó	2–1	W
29 Aug	@ Arsenal Sarandi	0–3	L
26 Aug	vs Argentino de Merlo	2–0	W
22 Aug	@ Talleres Remedios	2–1	W

1.8Scored / game

1.0Conceded / game

50%Both scored

83%Over 2.5

Real Pilar – last 6

WWLDWW

19 Sep	vs Arsenal Sarandi	2–1	W
12 Sep	@ Argentino de Merlo	1–0	W
5 Sep	vs Talleres Remedios	0–2	L
29 Aug	@ Deportivo Laferrere	1–1	D
25 Aug	vs Brown DE Adrogue	2–0	W
22 Aug	@ Deportivo Armenio	1–0	W

1.2Scored / game

0.7Conceded / game

33%Both scored

17%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Excursionistas	42	24	9	9	+36	81
2	Arsenal Sarandi	42	21	14	7	+28	77
3	Sportivo Italiano	42	20	12	10	+15	72
4	Talleres Remedios	42	20	11	11	+19	71
5	Deportivo Camioneros	42	19	13	10	+15	70
6	Villa Dalmine	42	18	14	10	+12	68
7	Real Pilar	42	18	12	12	+4	66
8	Deportivo Armenio	42	17	12	13	+3	63
9	Comunicaciones	42	15	15	12	+5	60
10	Deportivo Laferrere	42	15	14	13	-2	59
11	Villa San Carlos	42	12	15	15	-5	51
12	San Martín Burzaco	42	12	15	15	-6	51
13	Argentino de Merlo	42	13	11	18	-6	50
14	Flandria	42	13	10	19	-10	49
15	Deportivo Merlo	42	11	16	15	-15	49
16	Liniers	42	11	15	16	-7	48
17	Argentino Quilmes	42	10	17	15	-8	47
18	Dock Sud	42	11	14	17	-9	47
19	Defensores Unidos	42	10	16	16	-6	46
20	Brown DE Adrogue	42	10	16	16	-12	46
21	UAI Urquiza	42	8	21	13	-10	45
22	Ituzaingó	42	1	14	27	-41	17

Team

Pts

+36

+28

+15

+19

+15

+12

-2

-5

-6

-6

-10

-15

-7

-8

-9

-6

-12

-10

-41

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Excursionistas vs Real Pilar?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 52% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.

Who will win Excursionistas vs Real Pilar?

On our numbers Excursionistas have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Real Pilar 29%.

How many goals will there be in Excursionistas vs Real Pilar?

We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Excursionistas vs Real Pilar?

Our predicted score is Excursionistas 1–1 Real Pilar, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.

When is Excursionistas vs Real Pilar?

Excursionistas vs Real Pilar (Primera B Metropolitana) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Excursionistas Stadium.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Excursionistas v Real Pilar: numbers & prediction