Value bet: Grêmio Sãocarlense to win @ 2.45 – our chance 43% vs 41% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultGrêmio Sãocarlense to win43% · @2.45
Double chanceEither team to win73% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score57% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals78% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19% · fair 11.48
Grêmio Sãocarlense vs Comercial: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
20:00 WAT, Saturday 14 February: Grêmio Sãocarlense v Comercial in the Paulista A4.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Grêmio Sãocarlense 1.4 xG, Comercial 1.1 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 57%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Grêmio Sãocarlense 43%, draw 27%, Comercial 29%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Grêmio Sãocarlense to win @2.45 – the bookmaker implies 41%, our ratings say 43%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (78%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Grêmio Sãocarlense 1–1 Comercial. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Grêmio Sãocarlense43%fair 2.31 · @2.45
Draw27%fair 3.64 · @3.00
Comercial29%fair 3.42 · @2.85
2.41Expected goals
1.36Grêmio Sãocarlense xG
1.05Comercial xG
57%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–012%
0–19%
0–09%
2–19%
2–08%
From our goals model: Grêmio Sãocarlense 1.4 – 1.1 Comercial expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Grêmio Sãocarlense to win
43%
2.31
2.45 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
73%
1.38
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
57%
1.76
1.85 ▲
Draw no bet
Grêmio Sãocarlense (draw no bet)
60%
1.68
–
Asian handicap
Comercial +1 (Asian handicap)
73%
1.37
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
68%
1.48
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
57%
1.75
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
78%
1.29
1.20
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
90%
1.11
–
First team to score
Grêmio Sãocarlense to score first
51%
1.95
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Grêmio Sãocarlense / FT Grêmio Sãocarlense
26%
3.91
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
9%
11.48
–
Recent results
Grêmio Sãocarlense
No recent results on record.
Comercial
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Grêmio Sãocarlense and Comercial.
What is the prediction for Grêmio Sãocarlense vs Comercial?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Grêmio Sãocarlense vs Comercial?
On our numbers Grêmio Sãocarlense have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Comercial 29%.
How many goals will there be in Grêmio Sãocarlense vs Comercial?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Grêmio Sãocarlense vs Comercial?
Our predicted score is Grêmio Sãocarlense 1–1 Comercial, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Grêmio Sãocarlense vs Comercial?
Grêmio Sãocarlense vs Comercial (Paulista A4) kicks off on Saturday 14 February 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Paulista A4 · Brazil
Colorado Caieiras
Jabaquara
Joseense
São Caetano
Taquaritinga
AEA
Barretos
Tanabi
EC Lemense
Inter de Bebedouro
Vocem
Nacional SP
Penapolense2
ECUS1