Nacional SP 25%Draw 23%EC Lemense 51%Expected goals 0.71 – 1.20
67%
Betarazi pick
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.49 · bookmaker 1.45 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.45Odds
2
Value bet: EC Lemense to win @ 2.15 – our chance 51% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultEC Lemense to win ✓51% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · @1.60
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓67% · @1.45
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✓18% · fair 5.63
Nacional SP vs EC Lemense: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Wednesday 25 February the Paulista A4 brings Nacional SP against EC Lemense. Kick-off: 19:00 WAT.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Nacional SP 0.7 xG, EC Lemense 1.2 xG – a total near 1.9. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 67%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Nacional SP 25%, draw 23%, EC Lemense 51%.
GG/NG: NG (52%) at 1.60.
Price worth noting: EC Lemense to win @2.15 – the bookmaker implies 47%, our ratings say 51%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (67%, odds 1.45). Most likely score in line with that pick: Nacional SP 0–1 EC Lemense. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Nacional SP25%fair 3.93 · @3.20
Draw23%fair 4.33 · @3.10
EC Lemense51%fair 1.94 · @2.15
1.91Expected goals
0.71Nacional SP xG
1.20EC Lemense xG
48%Both score
33%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–118%
0–015%
1–113%
0–211%
1–010%
1–28%
From our goals model: Nacional SP 0.7 – 1.2 EC Lemense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
EC Lemense to win✓
51%
1.94
2.15 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.28
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
52%
1.93
1.60
Draw no bet
EC Lemense (draw no bet)✓
67%
1.49
–
Asian handicap
Nacional SP +1 (Asian handicap)
71%
1.41
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
60%
1.68
1.50
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
67%
1.49
1.45
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
95%
1.05
–
First team to score
EC Lemense to score first✓
54%
1.86
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
51%
1.98
–
Half-time / full-time
HT EC Lemense / FT EC Lemense✗
28%
3.63
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✓
18%
5.63
–
Recent results
Nacional SP
No recent results on record.
EC Lemense
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Nacional SP and EC Lemense.
What is the prediction for Nacional SP vs EC Lemense?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win Nacional SP vs EC Lemense?
On our numbers Nacional SP have a 25% chance of winning, the draw 23% and EC Lemense 51%.
How many goals will there be in Nacional SP vs EC Lemense?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 33% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nacional SP vs EC Lemense?
Our predicted score is Nacional SP 0–1 EC Lemense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Nacional SP vs EC Lemense?
Nacional SP vs EC Lemense (Paulista A4) kicks off on Wednesday 25 February 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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