Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.91 – our chance 56% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultShimizu S-pulse to win ✗45% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✗73% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.03
Shimizu S-pulse vs Avispa Fukuoka: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
06:00 WAT, Sunday 10 May: Shimizu S-pulse v Avispa Fukuoka in the J1 League, played at IAI Stadium Nihondaira. In the table, Shimizu S-pulse are 7th, lower half, on 24 points after 18 matches; Avispa Fukuoka are 10th (in the drop zone) with 21. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Shimizu S-pulse, last 5: WLLWL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Kyoto Sanga, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Avispa Fukuoka, last 5: LWWWL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Fagiano Okayama, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 2 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Shimizu S-pulse 1.5 xG, Avispa Fukuoka 1.1 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Shimizu S-pulse 45%, draw 27%, Avispa Fukuoka 28%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.91.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.91 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 56%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (77%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Shimizu S-pulse 1–1 Avispa Fukuoka. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Shimizu S-pulse45%fair 2.22 · @2.15
Draw27%fair 3.71 · @3.20
Avispa Fukuoka28%fair 3.58 · @3.50
2.51Expected goals
1.45Shimizu S-pulse xG
1.05Avispa Fukuoka xG
56%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–012%
2–19%
2–09%
0–19%
0–08%
From our goals model: Shimizu S-pulse 1.5 – 1.1 Avispa Fukuoka expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Shimizu S-pulse to win✗
45%
2.22
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✗
73%
1.37
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.79
1.91 ▲
Draw no bet
Shimizu S-pulse (draw no bet)
62%
1.62
–
Asian handicap
Avispa Fukuoka +1 (Asian handicap)✓
70%
1.42
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.78
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.20
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
1.06
First team to score
Shimizu S-pulse to score first
53%
1.88
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Shimizu S-pulse / FT Shimizu S-pulse✗
27%
3.65
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.03
–
Recent results
Shimizu S-pulse – last 6
WLLWLW
2 May
@ Kyoto Sanga
2–1
W
29 Apr
vs V-varen Nagasaki
1–2
L
25 Apr
vs Nagoya Grampus
0–2
L
5 Apr
@ V-varen Nagasaki
3–0
W
1 Apr
@ Vissel Kobe
0–2
L
22 Mar
vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
3–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Avispa Fukuoka – last 6
LWWWLL
25 Apr
@ Fagiano Okayama
0–2
L
22 Apr
@ Gamba Osaka
2–1
W
11 Apr
vs V-varen Nagasaki
1–0
W
5 Apr
@ Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1–0
W
15 Mar
@ V-varen Nagasaki
0–1
L
7 Mar
vs Nagoya Grampus
1–5
L
0.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Shimizu S-pulse and Avispa Fukuoka.
What is the prediction for Shimizu S-pulse vs Avispa Fukuoka?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Shimizu S-pulse vs Avispa Fukuoka?
On our numbers Shimizu S-pulse have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Avispa Fukuoka 28%.
How many goals will there be in Shimizu S-pulse vs Avispa Fukuoka?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Shimizu S-pulse vs Avispa Fukuoka?
Our predicted score is Shimizu S-pulse 1–1 Avispa Fukuoka, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Shimizu S-pulse vs Avispa Fukuoka?
Shimizu S-pulse vs Avispa Fukuoka (J1 League) kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 06:00 (West Africa Time) at IAI Stadium Nihondaira.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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