Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.15 – our chance 55% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultÁguia de Marabá to win ✓59% · @1.38
Double chanceÁguia de Marabá or draw ✓82% · @1.03
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @2.15
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.26
Águia de Marabá vs Independência: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Águia de Marabá welcome Independência to Estadio Municipal Zinho de Oliveira for a Copa Do Brasil fixture on Thursday 26 February (00:00 WAT).
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Águia de Marabá 1.7 xG, Independência 1.0 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 50%, GG 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Águia de Marabá 59%, draw 24%, Independência 18%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 2.15.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.15 – the bookmaker implies 47%, our ratings say 55%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (74%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Águia de Marabá 1–1 Independência. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Águia de Marabá59%fair 1.71 · @1.38
Draw24%fair 4.20 · @4.20
Independência18%fair 5.66 · @7.80
2.76Expected goals
1.73Águia de Marabá xG
1.03Independência xG
55%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–011%
2–110%
2–09%
0–17%
0–06%
From our goals model: Águia de Marabá 1.7 – 1.0 Independência expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Águia de Marabá to win✓
59%
1.71
1.38
Double chance
Águia de Marabá or draw✓
82%
1.21
1.03
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.83
2.15 ▲
Draw no bet
Águia de Marabá (draw no bet)✓
77%
1.30
–
Asian handicap
Independência +1 (Asian handicap)✗
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
50%
1.99
1.93
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.30
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.17
–
First team to score
Águia de Marabá to score first✓
59%
1.71
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.45
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Águia de Marabá / FT Águia de Marabá✓
33%
3.03
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.26
–
Recent results
Águia de Marabá – last 1
W
15 Feb
vs Cametá
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Independência
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Águia de Marabá and Independência.
What is the prediction for Águia de Marabá vs Independência?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Águia de Marabá vs Independência?
On our numbers Águia de Marabá have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Independência 18%.
How many goals will there be in Águia de Marabá vs Independência?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Águia de Marabá vs Independência?
Our predicted score is Águia de Marabá 1–1 Independência, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Águia de Marabá vs Independência?
Águia de Marabá vs Independência (Copa Do Brasil) kicks off on Thursday 26 February 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal Zinho de Oliveira.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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