Caxias 58%Draw 25%Guarany de Bagé 17%Expected goals 1.55 – 0.78
66%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.44 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.44Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.30 – our chance 50% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultCaxias to win ✗58% · @1.52
Double chanceCaxias or draw ✗83% · @1.05
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗50% · @2.30
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.95
Caxias vs Guarany de Bagé: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Caxias welcome Guarany de Bagé to Estadio Francisco Stedile for a Copa Do Brasil fixture on Thursday 26 February (00:00 WAT).
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Caxias 1.6 xG, Guarany de Bagé 0.8 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 41%, GG 50%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Caxias 58%, draw 25%, Guarany de Bagé 17%.
GG/NG: GG (50%) at 2.30.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.30 – the bookmaker implies 43%, our ratings say 50%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (66%, odds 1.44). Most likely score in line with that pick: Caxias 1–1 Guarany de Bagé. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Caxias58%fair 1.72 · @1.52
Draw25%fair 4.07 · @3.50
Guarany de Bagé17%fair 5.80 · @6.75
2.34Expected goals
1.55Caxias xG
0.78Guarany de Bagé xG
50%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
1–112%
2–012%
0–010%
2–19%
0–18%
From our goals model: Caxias 1.6 – 0.8 Guarany de Bagé expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Caxias to win✗
58%
1.72
1.52
Double chance
Caxias or draw✗
83%
1.21
1.05
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
50%
2.00
2.30 ▲
Draw no bet
Caxias (draw no bet)✗
77%
1.30
–
Asian handicap
Guarany de Bagé +1 (Asian handicap)✓
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
66%
1.51
1.44
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.68
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
1.18
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
First team to score
Caxias to score first✗
60%
1.67
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Caxias / FT Caxias✗
34%
2.97
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.95
–
Recent results
Caxias – last 1
W
16 Feb
@ São Luiz
2–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Guarany de Bagé – last 2
WW
21 Feb
@ Inter Santa Maria
1–0
W
16 Feb
vs Inter Santa Maria
3–2
W
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Caxias and Guarany de Bagé.
What is the prediction for Caxias vs Guarany de Bagé?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Caxias vs Guarany de Bagé?
On our numbers Caxias have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Guarany de Bagé 17%.
How many goals will there be in Caxias vs Guarany de Bagé?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Caxias vs Guarany de Bagé?
Our predicted score is Caxias 1–1 Guarany de Bagé, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Caxias vs Guarany de Bagé?
Caxias vs Guarany de Bagé (Copa Do Brasil) kicks off on Thursday 26 February 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Francisco Stedile.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Águia de Marabá2
Independência0
ASA1
Operario Ferroviario2
São Bernardo2
Atlético Alagoinhas0
Mixto1
Botafogo PB1