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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Sagan Tosu v Kagoshima United: numbers & prediction

J2 League · Japan · Ekimae Real Estate Stadium

Kagoshima United

Sagan Tosu 38%Draw 28%Kagoshima United 34% Expected goals 1.30 – 1.32

73%

Betarazi pick

Under 3.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.37 · bookmaker 1.28 · Won ✓

8/10Rating

1.28Odds

Value bet: Kagoshima United to win @ 3.25 – our chance 34% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Picks by market

ResultSagan Tosu to win ✗38% · @2.10

Double chanceEither team to win ✓72% · @1.28

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.73

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.28

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.32

Sagan Tosu vs Kagoshima United: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Kagoshima United travel to face Sagan Tosu on Saturday 28 February in the J2 League, with Ekimae Real Estate Stadium the venue – the ball rolls at 06:00 WAT.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Sagan Tosu 1.3 xG, Kagoshima United 1.3 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 57%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Sagan Tosu 38%, draw 28%, Kagoshima United 34%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.73.
Price worth noting: Kagoshima United to win @3.25 – the bookmaker implies 31%, our ratings say 34%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (73%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sagan Tosu 1–1 Kagoshima United. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Sagan Tosu38%fair 2.62 · @2.10

Draw28%fair 3.56 · @3.20

Kagoshima United34%fair 2.96 · @3.25

2.61Expected goals

1.30Sagan Tosu xG

1.32Kagoshima United xG

57%Both score

48%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–113%

0–110%

1–010%

1–28%

2–18%

0–07%

From our goals model: Sagan Tosu 1.3 – 1.3 Kagoshima United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Team ratings (Betarazi)

	Sagan Tosu	Kagoshima United
Attack vs J2 League average	-13%	+5%
Goals conceded vs average	-16%	-25%
Our expected goals here	0.91	1.05

Our own ratings from every J2 League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Sagan Tosu to win ✗	38%	2.62	2.10
Double chance	Either team to win ✓	72%	1.39	1.28
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✗	57%	1.74	1.73
Draw no bet	Sagan Tosu (draw no bet) ✗	53%	1.89	–
Asian handicap	Sagan Tosu +0.5 (Asian handicap) ✗	63%	1.59	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✗	72%	1.39	1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✓	52%	1.93	1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	73%	1.37	1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	88%	1.14	–
First team to score	Kagoshima United to score first ✓	47%	2.14	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✓	43%	2.32	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Kagoshima United / FT Kagoshima United ✗	21%	4.65	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	8%	12.32	–

Recent results

Sagan Tosu – last 1

21 Feb

@ Tegevajaro Miyazaki

1–2

1.0Scored / game

2.0Conceded / game

100%Both scored

100%Over 2.5

Kagoshima United – last 2

22 Feb	vs Renofa Yamaguchi	1–0	W
15 Feb	vs FC Ryukyu	3–1	W

2.0Scored / game

0.5Conceded / game

50%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Sagan Tosu and Kagoshima United.

Sagan Tosu vs Kagoshima United head-to-head page →

J2 League table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Albirex Niigata	16	10	2	4	-1	32
2	Yokohama FC	16	9	4	3	+15	31
3	Kataller Toyama	16	9	4	3	+14	31
4	Vegalta Sendai	16	9	3	4	+13	30
5	Omiya Ardija	16	8	6	2	+12	30
6	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	16	8	5	3	+9	29
7	Consadole Sapporo	16	8	2	6	+3	26
8	Iwaki	16	7	2	7	+4	23
9	Jubilo Iwata	16	6	5	5	+2	23
10	Shonan Bellmare	16	5	8	3	+1	23
11	Oita Trinita	16	5	7	4	+5	22
12	Blaublitz Akita	16	5	5	6	0	20
13	Sagan Tosu	16	6	2	8	-3	20
14	Montedio Yamagata	16	6	1	9	-2	19
15	Tokushima Vortis	16	5	2	9	-5	17
16	Fujieda MYFC	16	3	7	6	-4	16
17	Vanraure Hachinohe	16	4	2	10	-15	14
18	Tochigi City	16	3	3	10	-10	12
19	Imabari	16	3	3	10	-16	12
20	Ventforet Kofu	16	3	3	10	-22	12

More J2 League predictions

League hub

–

Vegalta Sendai0

Vanraure Hachinohe0 Pens 5–4 161%1.77X23%3.35216%4.20 1.8–0.7xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 75%@1.28 ✓

Tochigi City1

Shonan Bellmare3 129%2.90X26%3.20245%2.25 1.2–1.6xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 73%@1.33 ✓

Thespakusatsu Gunma3

Blaublitz Akita2 124%3.95X25%3.40251%1.80 1.1–1.5xG X2Blaublitz Akita or draw 76%@1.22 ✗

–

Jubilo Iwata0

Fukushima United0 Pens 5–3 162%1.30X22%4.75216%8.25 2.0–1.1xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 62%@1.48 ✗

Consadole Sapporo1

FC Gifu2 156%1.80X25%3.35218%4.00 1.7–0.9xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 73%@1.28 ✓

Parceiro Nagano1

Omiya Ardija2 115%7.50X20%4.60266%1.33 1.0–2.2xG 2Omiya Ardija to win 66%@1.33 ✓

Ventforet Kofu1

Matsumoto Yamaga0 144%1.77X24%3.45231%4.10 1.3–1.4xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 74%@1.28 ✗

–

Kataller Toyama0

Osaka0 Pens 6–5 157%1.77X24%3.35219%4.20 1.9–0.9xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 74%@1.33 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Sagan Tosu vs Kagoshima United?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.

Who will win Sagan Tosu vs Kagoshima United?

On our numbers Sagan Tosu have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Kagoshima United 34%.

How many goals will there be in Sagan Tosu vs Kagoshima United?

We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Sagan Tosu vs Kagoshima United?

Our predicted score is Sagan Tosu 1–1 Kagoshima United, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.

When is Sagan Tosu vs Kagoshima United?

Sagan Tosu vs Kagoshima United (J2 League) kicks off on Saturday 28 February 2026 at 06:00 (West Africa Time) at Ekimae Real Estate Stadium.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.