Criciuma 50%Draw 27%Vila Nova 23%Expected goals 1.23 – 0.89
80%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
Picks by market
ResultCriciuma to win ✓50% · @1.69
Double chanceCriciuma or draw ✓77% · @1.15
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · @1.65
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.80
Criciuma vs Vila Nova: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Criciuma welcome Vila Nova to Estádio Heriberto Hülse for a Serie B fixture on Saturday 18 July (20:00 WAT). In the table, Criciuma are 4th, among the top four, on 62 points after 37 matches; Vila Nova are 3rd (among the top four) with 66.
Current form
Criciuma, last 5: WWWWD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Ponte Preta, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Vila Nova, last 5: LWLWL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Juventude, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Criciuma, collecting 2.7 points per game to 1.5 for Vila Nova.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Criciuma 1.2 xG, Vila Nova 0.9 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 61%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Criciuma 50%, draw 27%, Vila Nova 23%.
Lower-risk option: Criciuma or draw (77%) at 1.15.
GG/NG: NG (51%) at 1.65.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (80%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Criciuma 1–0 Vila Nova. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Criciuma50%fair 2.00 · @1.69
Draw27%fair 3.69 · @3.50
Vila Nova23%fair 4.37 · @5.25
2.13Expected goals
1.23Criciuma xG
0.89Vila Nova xG
49%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
1–113%
0–012%
0–111%
2–09%
2–18%
From our goals model: Criciuma 1.2 – 0.9 Vila Nova expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Criciuma
Vila Nova
Attack vs Serie B average
-18%
+16%
Goals conceded vs average
-23%
-15%
Our expected goals here
0.96
0.92
Our own ratings from every Serie B result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Criciuma to win✓
50%
2.00
1.69
Double chance
Criciuma or draw✓
77%
1.30
1.15
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
51%
1.98
1.65
Draw no bet
Criciuma (draw no bet)✓
69%
1.46
–
Asian handicap
Vila Nova +1 (Asian handicap)✗
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.63
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.24
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
1.06
First team to score
Criciuma to score first✓
51%
1.96
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
48%
2.08
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Criciuma / FT Criciuma✓
25%
3.94
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.80
–
Recent results
Criciuma – last 6
WWWWDW
9 Jul
@ Ponte Preta
2–1
W
4 Jul
vs Sport Recife
1–0
W
27 Jun
vs São Bernardo
1–0
W
24 Jun
@ America Mineiro
1–0
W
16 Jun
vs Ceara
1–1
D
6 Jun
vs Londrina
1–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Vila Nova – last 6
LWLWLW
10 Jul
@ Juventude
0–1
L
6 Jul
vs São Bernardo
2–1
W
26 Jun
@ Novorizontino
1–2
L
20 Jun
vs Nautico Recife
4–3
W
14 Jun
@ Cuiaba
0–1
L
9 Jun
vs Botafogo SP
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Criciuma and Vila Nova.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Criciuma vs Vila Nova?
On our numbers Criciuma have a 50% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Vila Nova 23%.
How many goals will there be in Criciuma vs Vila Nova?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Criciuma vs Vila Nova?
Our predicted score is Criciuma 1–0 Vila Nova, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Criciuma vs Vila Nova?
Criciuma vs Vila Nova (Serie B) kicks off on Saturday 18 July 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Heriberto Hülse.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
