Mexico vs Australia: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Mexico welcome Australia to Rose Bowl Stadium for a Friendlies fixture on Sunday 31 May (03:00 WAT).
Current form
Mexico, last 4: WDDW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Ghana, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Mexico 1.4 xG, Australia 0.9 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 50%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Mexico 53%, draw 26%, Australia 21%.
Lower-risk option: Mexico or draw (79%) at 1.17.
GG/NG: GG (50%) at 1.90.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (76%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Mexico 1–0 Australia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Mexico53%fair 1.88 · @1.68
Draw26%fair 3.89 · @3.75
Australia21%fair 4.75 · @4.90
2.32Expected goals
1.42Mexico xG
0.90Australia xG
50%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
1–113%
2–010%
0–010%
2–19%
0–19%
From our goals model: Mexico 1.4 – 0.9 Australia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Mexico
Australia
Attack vs Friendlies average
-21%
-7%
Goals conceded vs average
-3%
+7%
Our expected goals here
1.46
1.11
Our own ratings from every Friendlies result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mexico to win✓
53%
1.88
1.68
Double chance
Mexico or draw✓
79%
1.27
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
50%
2.00
1.90
Draw no bet
Mexico (draw no bet)✓
72%
1.40
–
Asian handicap
Australia +1 (Asian handicap)
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
70%
1.43
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.81
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.30
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.13
1.10
First team to score
Mexico to score first✓
55%
1.81
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mexico / FT Mexico✓
29%
3.43
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.22
–
Recent results
Mexico – last 4
WDDW
23 May
vs Ghana
2–0
W
1 Apr
vs Belgium
1–1
D
29 Mar
vs Portugal
0–0
D
26 Feb
vs Iceland
4–0
W
1.8Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
25%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Australia – last 2
WW
31 Mar
vs Curaçao
5–1
W
27 Mar
vs Cameroon
1–0
W
3.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mexico and Australia.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Mexico vs Australia?
On our numbers Mexico have a 53% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Australia 21%.
How many goals will there be in Mexico vs Australia?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mexico vs Australia?
Our predicted score is Mexico 1–0 Australia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Mexico vs Australia?
Mexico vs Australia (Friendlies) kicks off on Sunday 31 May 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time) at Rose Bowl Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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