Japan 71%Draw 17%Iceland 12%Expected goals 2.11 – 0.79
61%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.64 · bookmaker 1.70 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.70Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.15 – our chance 55% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultJapan to win ✓71% · @1.17
Double chanceJapan or draw ✓88% · @1.03
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @2.15
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗81% · @1.12
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.32
Japan vs Iceland: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Iceland travel to face Japan on Sunday 31 May in the Friendlies, with New National Stadium the venue – the ball rolls at 11:25 WAT.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Japan 2.1 xG, Iceland 0.8 xG – a total near 2.9. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 61% and GG at 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Japan 71%, draw 17%, Iceland 12%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 2.15.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.15 – the bookmaker implies 47%, our ratings say 55%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (61%, odds 1.70 – longer than our fair 1.64, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Japan 2–0 Iceland. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Japan71%fair 1.41 · @1.17
Draw17%fair 5.80 · @7.20
Iceland12%fair 8.42 · @12.50
2.91Expected goals
2.11Japan xG
0.79Iceland xG
55%Both score
61%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–012%
1–012%
2–110%
1–19%
3–09%
3–17%
From our goals model: Japan 2.1 – 0.8 Iceland expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Japan
Iceland
Attack vs Friendlies average
+17%
-13%
Goals conceded vs average
-17%
+1%
Our expected goals here
2.03
0.88
Our own ratings from every Friendlies result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Japan to win✓
71%
1.41
1.17
Double chance
Japan or draw✓
88%
1.13
1.03
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.83
2.15 ▲
Draw no bet
Japan (draw no bet)✓
86%
1.17
–
Asian handicap
Japan -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
81%
1.23
1.12
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
61%
1.64
1.42
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
61%
1.64
1.70
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.28
First team to score
Japan to score first✓
69%
1.46
–
Half-time result
Japan ahead at half-time✗
49%
2.05
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Japan / FT Japan✗
44%
2.26
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.32
–
Recent results
Japan – last 1
W
31 Mar
@ England
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Iceland – last 2
DL
31 Mar
@ Haiti
1–1
D
26 Feb
@ Mexico
0–4
L
0.5Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Japan and Iceland.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Japan vs Iceland?
On our numbers Japan have a 71% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Iceland 12%.
How many goals will there be in Japan vs Iceland?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Japan vs Iceland?
Our predicted score is Japan 2–0 Iceland, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Japan vs Iceland?
Japan vs Iceland (Friendlies) kicks off on Sunday 31 May 2026 at 11:25 (West Africa Time) at New National Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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