Poland vs Ukraine: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Poland welcome Ukraine to Tarczyński Arena Wrocław for a Friendlies fixture on Sunday 31 May (16:30 WAT).
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Poland 1.3 xG, Ukraine 0.8 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 58%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Poland 50%, draw 25%, Ukraine 24%.
Lower-risk option: Poland or draw (76%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.73.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (78%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Poland 1–0 Ukraine. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Poland50%fair 1.99 · @2.05
Draw25%fair 3.93 · @3.25
Ukraine24%fair 4.14 · @3.35
2.14Expected goals
1.32Poland xG
0.82Ukraine xG
53%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
1–113%
0–012%
2–010%
0–110%
2–18%
From our goals model: Poland 1.3 – 0.8 Ukraine expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Poland
Ukraine
Attack vs Friendlies average
-6%
+2%
Goals conceded vs average
+7%
-12%
Our expected goals here
1.62
1.05
Our own ratings from every Friendlies result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Poland to win✗
50%
1.99
2.05
Double chance
Poland or draw✗
76%
1.32
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.88
1.73
Draw no bet
Poland (draw no bet)✗
68%
1.48
–
Asian handicap
Ukraine +1 (Asian handicap)✓
69%
1.44
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
67%
1.49
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.72
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
93%
1.07
–
First team to score
Poland to score first✗
54%
1.84
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
48%
2.10
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Poland / FT Poland✗
28%
3.55
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
11.90
–
Recent results
Poland – last 2
LW
31 Mar
@ Sweden
2–3
L
26 Mar
vs Albania
2–1
W
2.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Ukraine – last 2
WL
31 Mar
vs Albania
1–0
W
26 Mar
vs Sweden
1–3
L
1.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Poland and Ukraine.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Poland vs Ukraine?
On our numbers Poland have a 50% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Ukraine 24%.
How many goals will there be in Poland vs Ukraine?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Poland vs Ukraine?
Our predicted score is Poland 1–0 Ukraine, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Poland vs Ukraine?
Poland vs Ukraine (Friendlies) kicks off on Sunday 31 May 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Tarczyński Arena Wrocław.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Ecuador2
Saudi Arabia1
South Korea5
Trinidad and Tobago0
Mexico1
Australia0
Japan1
Iceland0
Singapore4
Mongolia0
Switzerland4
Jordan1
Czech Republic2
Kosovo1
Cape Verde Islands3
Serbia0