Finland 84%Draw 10%San Marino 6%Expected goals 3.04 – 0.67
94%
Betarazi pick
Finland or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.06
10/10Rating
–Odds
Picks by market
ResultFinland to win84% · fair 1.19
Double chanceFinland or draw94% · fair 1.06
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score56% · fair 1.79
GoalsOver 2.5 goals72% · fair 1.40
Correct scoreCorrect score 3–012% · fair 8.68
Finland vs San Marino: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
San Marino travel to face Finland on Sunday 15 November in the UEFA Nations League – the ball rolls at 18:00 WAT. In the table, Finland are 3rd on 7 points after 4 matches; San Marino are 4th with 0.
Current form
Finland, last 5: LWDWL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Belarus, away. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
San Marino, last 5: LLLLL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Albania, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Momentum favours Finland, collecting 1.2 points per game to 0.0 for San Marino.
Head to head
When they last met (26 Sep 2026) it ended San Marino 0–7 Finland.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Finland 3.0 xG, San Marino 0.7 xG – a total near 3.7. That is an open game on paper: 72% for three or more goals, 44% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Finland 84%, draw 10%, San Marino 6%.
Betarazi verdict
Our call: Finland or draw (94%). Most likely score in line with that pick: Finland 3–0 San Marino. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Finland84%fair 1.19
Draw10%fair 9.60
San Marino6%fair 17.45
3.71Expected goals
3.04Finland xG
0.67San Marino xG
44%Both score
72%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
3–012%
2–011%
4–09%
3–18%
2–18%
1–07%
From our goals model: Finland 3.0 – 0.7 San Marino expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Finland
San Marino
Attack vs UEFA Nations League average
+37%
-29%
Goals conceded vs average
-25%
+92%
Our expected goals here
3.20
0.66
Our own ratings from every UEFA Nations League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
On our numbers Finland have a 84% chance of winning, the draw 10% and San Marino 6%.
How many goals will there be in Finland vs San Marino?
We expect about 3.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 72% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Finland vs San Marino?
Our predicted score is Finland 3–0 San Marino, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.7 goals in total.
When is Finland vs San Marino?
Finland vs San Marino (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Sunday 15 November 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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