Value bet: Under 1.5 goals @ 2.10 – our chance 50% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultOlimpo Bahia Blanca to win ✓38% · @2.45
Double chanceOlimpo Bahia Blanca or draw ✓71% · @1.30
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓57% · @1.44
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓76% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✓18% · fair 5.41
Germinal de Rawson vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Germinal de Rawson welcome Olimpo Bahia Blanca to Estadio El Fortin for a Torneo Federal A fixture on Sunday 12 July (19:00 WAT). In the table, Germinal de Rawson are 30th, lower half, on 18 points after 16 matches; Olimpo Bahia Blanca are 1st (leading the league) with 31. There are 13 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Germinal de Rawson, last 5: LWDDL Their latest outing: 0–5 defeat to Alvarado, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Olimpo Bahia Blanca, last 5: DDDDD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Villa Mitre, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Germinal de Rawson 0.7 xG, Olimpo Bahia Blanca 0.8 xG – a total near 1.5. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 76% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Germinal de Rawson 29%, draw 33%, Olimpo Bahia Blanca 38%.
Lower-risk option: Olimpo Bahia Blanca or draw (71%) at 1.30.
GG/NG: NG (57%) at 1.44.
Price worth noting: Under 1.5 goals @2.10 – the bookmaker implies 48%, our ratings say 50%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (76%, odds 1.33). Most likely score in line with that pick: Germinal de Rawson 0–0 Olimpo Bahia Blanca. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Germinal de Rawson29%fair 3.41 · @3.00
Draw33%fair 3.02 · @2.70
Olimpo Bahia Blanca38%fair 2.67 · @2.45
1.47Expected goals
0.67Germinal de Rawson xG
0.81Olimpo Bahia Blanca xG
43%Both score
24%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–023%
0–118%
1–015%
1–112%
0–27%
2–05%
From our goals model: Germinal de Rawson 0.7 – 0.8 Olimpo Bahia Blanca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Germinal de Rawson
Olimpo Bahia Blanca
Attack vs Torneo Federal A average
-20%
+4%
Goals conceded vs average
+5%
-34%
Our expected goals here
0.64
0.78
Our own ratings from every Torneo Federal A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Olimpo Bahia Blanca to win✓
38%
2.67
2.45
Double chance
Olimpo Bahia Blanca or draw✓
71%
1.42
1.30
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
57%
1.75
1.44
Draw no bet
Olimpo Bahia Blanca (draw no bet)✓
56%
1.78
–
Asian handicap
Germinal de Rawson +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
64%
1.55
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Under 1.5 goals✓
50%
1.98
2.10 ▲
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.33
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
90%
1.12
1.10
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
95%
1.06
1.02
First team to score
Olimpo Bahia Blanca to score first✓
42%
2.37
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
58%
1.73
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
30%
3.35
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✓
18%
5.41
–
Recent results
Germinal de Rawson – last 6
LWDDLW
5 Jul
@ Alvarado
0–5
L
28 Jun
vs Santamarina
1–0
W
14 Jun
@ Villa Mitre
0–0
D
7 Jun
vs Circulo Deportivo
0–0
D
30 May
@ Kimberley Mar del Plata
0–1
L
24 May
vs Sol de Mayo
1–0
W
0.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Olimpo Bahia Blanca – last 6
DDDDDL
5 Jul
vs Villa Mitre
0–0
D
28 Jun
@ Circulo Deportivo
1–1
D
20 Jun
vs Kimberley Mar del Plata
0–0
D
14 Jun
@ Sol de Mayo
1–1
D
7 Jun
vs Guillermo Brown
0–0
D
24 May
@ Alvarado
0–2
L
0.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Germinal de Rawson and Olimpo Bahia Blanca.
What is the prediction for Germinal de Rawson vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Germinal de Rawson vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca?
On our numbers Germinal de Rawson have a 29% chance of winning, the draw 33% and Olimpo Bahia Blanca 38%.
How many goals will there be in Germinal de Rawson vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca?
We expect about 1.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 24% likely and both teams score 43% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Germinal de Rawson vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca?
Our predicted score is Germinal de Rawson 0–0 Olimpo Bahia Blanca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.5 goals in total.
When is Germinal de Rawson vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca?
Germinal de Rawson vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca (Torneo Federal A) kicks off on Sunday 12 July 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio El Fortin.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
