Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.20 – our chance 52% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultSarmiento de La Banda to win ✓42% · @2.00
Double chanceSarmiento de La Banda or draw ✓71% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @2.20
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.34
Sarmiento de La Banda vs San Martin Formosa: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
20:00 WAT, Sunday 12 July: Sarmiento de La Banda v San Martin Formosa in the Torneo Federal A, played at Stadio Ciudad de La Banda. In the table, Sarmiento de La Banda are 13th, upper half, on 25 points after 16 matches; San Martin Formosa are 4th (among the top four) with 30.
Current form
Sarmiento de La Banda, last 5: LWWWW Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Defensores de Vilelas, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 5 clean sheets in that run.
San Martin Formosa, last 5: DLWLW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Juventud Antoniana, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Sarmiento de La Banda, collecting 2.5 points per game to 1.7 for San Martin Formosa.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Sarmiento de La Banda 1.2 xG, San Martin Formosa 1.0 xG – a total near 2.2. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 38%, GG 52%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Sarmiento de La Banda 42%, draw 29%, San Martin Formosa 29%.
Lower-risk option: Sarmiento de La Banda or draw (71%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 2.20.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.20 – the bookmaker implies 45%, our ratings say 52%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Sarmiento de La Banda or draw (71%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sarmiento de La Banda 1–1 San Martin Formosa. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Sarmiento de La Banda42%fair 2.36 · @2.00
Draw29%fair 3.46 · @2.90
San Martin Formosa29%fair 3.47 · @3.70
2.24Expected goals
1.22Sarmiento de La Banda xG
1.01San Martin Formosa xG
52%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–013%
0–111%
0–011%
2–18%
2–08%
From our goals model: Sarmiento de La Banda 1.2 – 1.0 San Martin Formosa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Sarmiento de La Banda
San Martin Formosa
Attack vs Torneo Federal A average
+2%
+23%
Goals conceded vs average
+13%
-9%
Our expected goals here
1.11
1.00
Our own ratings from every Torneo Federal A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sarmiento de La Banda to win✓
42%
2.36
2.00
Double chance
Sarmiento de La Banda or draw✓
71%
1.41
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.92
2.20 ▲
Draw no bet
Sarmiento de La Banda (draw no bet)✓
59%
1.68
–
Asian handicap
San Martin Formosa +1 (Asian handicap)✗
77%
1.30
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
64%
1.56
1.50
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.62
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
1.17
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
1.05
First team to score
Sarmiento de La Banda to score first✓
49%
2.05
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.13
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sarmiento de La Banda / FT Sarmiento de La Banda✓
23%
4.27
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.34
–
Recent results
Sarmiento de La Banda – last 6
LWWWWW
4 Jul
@ Defensores de Vilelas
0–3
L
28 Jun
vs Bartolomé Mitre
1–0
W
13 Jun
@ Juventud Antoniana
1–0
W
7 Jun
vs Sol de América
2–0
W
31 May
@ Sarmiento Resistencia
1–0
W
25 May
vs Boca Unidos
3–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
0%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
San Martin Formosa – last 6
DLWLWW
5 Jul
vs Juventud Antoniana
0–0
D
28 Jun
@ Sol de América
1–2
L
21 Jun
vs Sarmiento Resistencia
3–0
W
14 Jun
@ Boca Unidos
1–3
L
7 Jun
vs Tucuman Central
3–2
W
25 May
@ Defensores de Vilelas
3–2
W
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sarmiento de La Banda and San Martin Formosa.
What is the prediction for Sarmiento de La Banda vs San Martin Formosa?
Our pick is Sarmiento de La Banda or draw with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Sarmiento de La Banda vs San Martin Formosa?
On our numbers Sarmiento de La Banda have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 29% and San Martin Formosa 29%.
How many goals will there be in Sarmiento de La Banda vs San Martin Formosa?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sarmiento de La Banda vs San Martin Formosa?
Our predicted score is Sarmiento de La Banda 1–1 San Martin Formosa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Sarmiento de La Banda vs San Martin Formosa?
Sarmiento de La Banda vs San Martin Formosa (Torneo Federal A) kicks off on Sunday 12 July 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Ciudad de La Banda.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
