Naples vs Sporting JAX: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Naples welcome Sporting JAX to Paradise Coast Sports Complex for a USL League One Cup fixture on Sunday 17 May (22:00 WAT). In the table, Naples are 37th, lower half, on 3 points after 4 matches; Sporting JAX are 27th (lower half) with 3. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Naples, last 5: LLLLW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Boise, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 2 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Sporting JAX, last 5: WLLLL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Sarasota Paradise, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 3 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Momentum favours Naples, collecting 1.0 points per game to 0.5 for Sporting JAX.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Naples 1.7 xG, Sporting JAX 1.2 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 53%, GG 58%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Naples 44%, draw 23%, Sporting JAX 33%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.65.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Naples 1–1 Sporting JAX. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Naples44%fair 2.27 · @2.40
Draw23%fair 4.36 · @3.45
Sporting JAX33%fair 3.02 · @2.55
2.88Expected goals
1.70Naples xG
1.18Sporting JAX xG
58%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
2–110%
1–010%
2–08%
1–27%
0–17%
From our goals model: Naples 1.7 – 1.2 Sporting JAX expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Naples to win✗
44%
2.27
2.40 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
77%
1.30
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.73
1.65
Draw no bet
Naples (draw no bet)
57%
1.75
–
Asian handicap
Sporting JAX +1 (Asian handicap)✓
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.88
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.35
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
84%
1.20
–
First team to score
Naples to score first✗
56%
1.80
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.48
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Naples / FT Naples✗
30%
3.33
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.46
–
Recent results
Naples – last 6
LLLLWW
14 May
@ Boise
0–2
L
3 May
vs One Knoxville
0–3
L
30 Apr
@ Miami FC
1–4
L
16 Apr
vs Orlando City SC
0–1
L
12 Apr
vs Sarasota Paradise
2–0
W
5 Apr
vs Greenville Triumph
1–0
W
0.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Sporting JAX – last 6
WLLLLL
14 May
@ Sarasota Paradise
2–0
W
10 May
@ Indy Eleven
1–2
L
3 May
@ Charleston Battery
0–4
L
26 Apr
vs Miami FC
0–1
L
5 Apr
vs Tampa Bay Rowdies
0–1
L
29 Mar
@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds
2–3
L
0.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Naples and Sporting JAX.
What is the prediction for Naples vs Sporting JAX?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Naples vs Sporting JAX?
On our numbers Naples have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Sporting JAX 33%.
How many goals will there be in Naples vs Sporting JAX?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Naples vs Sporting JAX?
Our predicted score is Naples 1–1 Sporting JAX, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Naples vs Sporting JAX?
Naples vs Sporting JAX (USL League One Cup) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time) at Paradise Coast Sports Complex.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
