Defensor Sporting 21%Draw 26%Club Nacional 53%Expected goals 0.91 – 1.48
79%
Betarazi pick
Club Nacional or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
Picks by market
ResultClub Nacional to win ✗53% · @1.88
Double chanceClub Nacional or draw ✗79% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.94
Defensor Sporting vs Club Nacional: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 21 March the Primera División Apertura brings Defensor Sporting against Club Nacional at Estadio Luis Franzini. Kick-off: 01:30 WAT. In the table, Defensor Sporting are 13th, lower half, on 12 points after 13 matches; Club Nacional are 3rd (among the top four) with 26. There are 14 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Defensor Sporting, last 5: DLLWW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Central Espanol, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.6 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Club Nacional, last 4: WLWD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Wanderers, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Defensor Sporting 0.9 xG, Club Nacional 1.5 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 53%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Defensor Sporting 21%, draw 26%, Club Nacional 53%.
Lower-risk option: Club Nacional or draw (79%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.91.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Club Nacional or draw (79%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Defensor Sporting 0–1 Club Nacional. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Defensor Sporting21%fair 4.77 · @4.10
Draw26%fair 3.87 · @3.20
Club Nacional53%fair 1.88 · @1.88
2.39Expected goals
0.91Defensor Sporting xG
1.48Club Nacional xG
53%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–114%
1–112%
0–210%
1–29%
0–09%
1–08%
From our goals model: Defensor Sporting 0.9 – 1.5 Club Nacional expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Defensor Sporting
Club Nacional
Attack vs Primera División Apertura average
-0%
+25%
Goals conceded vs average
+25%
-7%
Our expected goals here
1.19
1.67
Our own ratings from every Primera División Apertura result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Club Nacional to win✗
53%
1.88
1.88
Double chance
Club Nacional or draw✗
79%
1.27
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.89
1.91
Draw no bet
Club Nacional (draw no bet)✗
72%
1.39
–
Asian handicap
Defensor Sporting +1 (Asian handicap)✓
66%
1.51
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.76
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.10
–
First team to score
Club Nacional to score first
56%
1.78
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Club Nacional / FT Club Nacional✗
30%
3.32
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.94
–
Recent results
Defensor Sporting – last 5
DLLWW
9 Mar
vs Central Espanol
0–0
D
3 Mar
@ Atletico Torque
0–1
L
27 Feb
@ Atletico Torque
0–1
L
21 Feb
vs Cerro Largo
1–0
W
14 Feb
@ Liverpool Montevideo
2–1
W
0.6Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
20%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Club Nacional – last 4
WLWD
14 Mar
vs Wanderers
2–0
W
1 Mar
vs Penarol
0–1
L
22 Feb
@ Progreso
1–0
W
15 Feb
vs Racing Montevideo
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
25%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Defensor Sporting and Club Nacional.
What is the prediction for Defensor Sporting vs Club Nacional?
Our pick is Club Nacional or draw with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Defensor Sporting vs Club Nacional?
On our numbers Defensor Sporting have a 21% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Club Nacional 53%.
How many goals will there be in Defensor Sporting vs Club Nacional?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Defensor Sporting vs Club Nacional?
Our predicted score is Defensor Sporting 0–1 Club Nacional, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Defensor Sporting vs Club Nacional?
Defensor Sporting vs Club Nacional (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Saturday 21 March 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Luis Franzini.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
