Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
Picks by market
ResultPenarol to win ✓68% · @1.37
Double chancePenarol or draw ✓89% · fair 1.12
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗56% · @1.42
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗78% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.91
Penarol vs Cerro: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Cerro travel to face Penarol on Saturday 21 March in the Primera División Apertura, with Estadio Campeón del Siglo the venue – the ball rolls at 23:30 WAT. In the table, Penarol are 5th, upper half, on 22 points after 13 matches; Cerro are 9th (lower half) with 18.
Current form
Penarol, last 5: WDWWL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Albion FC, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Cerro, last 4: LDDL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Racing Montevideo, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Momentum favours Penarol, collecting 2.0 points per game to 0.5 for Cerro.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Penarol 1.8 xG, Cerro 0.6 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 44%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Penarol 68%, draw 22%, Cerro 11%.
GG/NG: NG (56%) at 1.42.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (78%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Penarol 1–0 Cerro. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Penarol68%fair 1.48 · @1.37
Draw22%fair 4.61 · @3.95
Cerro11%fair 9.50 · @9.10
2.35Expected goals
1.77Penarol xG
0.58Cerro xG
44%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–017%
2–015%
1–110%
0–010%
3–09%
2–19%
From our goals model: Penarol 1.8 – 0.6 Cerro expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Penarol
Cerro
Attack vs Primera División Apertura average
+24%
-9%
Goals conceded vs average
-29%
+20%
Our expected goals here
1.90
0.69
Our own ratings from every Primera División Apertura result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Penarol to win✓
68%
1.48
1.37
Double chance
Penarol or draw✓
89%
1.12
–
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
56%
1.80
1.42
Draw no bet
Penarol (draw no bet)✓
87%
1.16
–
Asian handicap
Penarol -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
66%
1.51
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
67%
1.48
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.73
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
78%
1.28
1.20
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
First team to score
Penarol to score first
68%
1.47
–
Half-time result
Penarol ahead at half-time✓
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Penarol / FT Penarol✓
42%
2.39
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
17%
5.91
–
Recent results
Penarol – last 5
WDWWL
15 Mar
@ Albion FC
1–0
W
8 Mar
vs Danubio
1–1
D
1 Mar
@ Club Nacional
1–0
W
23 Feb
vs Deportivo Maldonado
2–1
W
16 Feb
@ Central Espanol
1–2
L
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
60%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Cerro – last 4
LDDL
8 Mar
@ Racing Montevideo
0–1
L
28 Feb
vs Boston River
1–1
D
20 Feb
vs Liverpool Montevideo
1–1
D
16 Feb
@ Albion FC
0–3
L
0.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Penarol and Cerro.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Penarol vs Cerro?
On our numbers Penarol have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Cerro 11%.
How many goals will there be in Penarol vs Cerro?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Penarol vs Cerro?
Our predicted score is Penarol 1–0 Cerro, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Penarol vs Cerro?
Penarol vs Cerro (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Saturday 21 March 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Campeón del Siglo.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
