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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Corinthians v Santa Fe: numbers & prediction

CONMEBOL Libertadores · South America · Neo Química Arena

Corinthians

WLLDD
2–0
FT

Santa Fe

DDLWW
Corinthians 54%Draw 25%Santa Fe 22% Expected goals 1.26 – 0.90
80%
Betarazi pick

Under 3.5 goals

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓

9/10Rating
1.22Odds

Picks by market

ResultCorinthians to win ✓54% · @1.40
Double chanceCorinthians or draw ✓78% · @1.05
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓50% · @1.45
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 6.91

Corinthians vs Santa Fe: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Thursday 16 April the CONMEBOL Libertadores brings Corinthians against Santa Fe at Neo Química Arena. Kick-off: 01:30 WAT. In the table, Corinthians are 1st on 11 points after 6 matches; Santa Fe are 3rd with 8. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

Corinthians, last 5: WLLDD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Platense, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.

Santa Fe, last 5: DDLWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Penarol, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Santa Fe, collecting 1.5 points per game to 1.0 for Corinthians.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Corinthians 1.3 xG, Santa Fe 0.9 xG – a total near 2.2. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 61%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Corinthians 54%, draw 25%, Santa Fe 22%.
  • GG/NG: NG (50%) at 1.45.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (80%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Corinthians 1–0 Santa Fe. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Corinthians54%fair 1.86 · @1.40
Draw25%fair 4.08 · @4.10
Santa Fe22%fair 4.58 · @9.00
2.16Expected goals
1.26Corinthians xG
0.90Santa Fe xG
50%Both score
39%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–014%
1–113%
0–011%
0–110%
2–09%
2–18%

From our goals model: Corinthians 1.3 – 0.9 Santa Fe expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultCorinthians to win ✓54%1.861.40
Double chanceCorinthians or draw ✓78%1.281.05
Both teams to scoreNot both teams to score ✓50%1.981.45
Draw no betCorinthians (draw no bet) ✓71%1.41–
Asian handicapSanta Fe +1 (Asian handicap) ✗73%1.36–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓65%1.541.42
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓61%1.651.62
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80%1.251.22
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓91%1.101.06
First team to scoreCorinthians to score first ✓52%1.94–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✓48%2.10–
Half-time / full-timeHT Corinthians / FT Corinthians ✗26%3.89–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14%6.91–

Recent results

Corinthians – last 6

WLLDDD
10 Apr@ Platense2–0W
5 Aprvs Internacional0–1L
2 Apr@ Fluminense1–3L
23 Marvs Flamengo1–1D
20 Mar@ Chapecoense-sc0–0D
15 Mar@ Santos1–1D
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5

Santa Fe – last 6

DDLWWD
10 Aprvs Penarol1–1D
5 Apr@ Deportes Tolima2–2D
2 Aprvs Llaneros0–1L
28 Mar@ Bucaramanga2–1W
23 Marvs Independiente Medellin2–1W
19 Mar@ Deportivo Cali1–1D
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Corinthians and Santa Fe.

Corinthians vs Santa Fe head-to-head page →

CONMEBOL Libertadores table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Corinthians6321+411
2Platense6312+110
3Santa Fe6222-18
4Penarol6033-43

More CONMEBOL Libertadores predictions

League hub
FT Fluminense1 Independ. Rivadavia2 159%1.64X24%3.65217%5.40 1.3–0.6xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 82%@1.22 ✓
FT Independiente del Valle3 UCV1 172%1.29X18%5.0029%10.50 2.2–0.7xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 78%@1.22 ✓
FT Lanus1 Always Ready0 161%1.25X21%5.70218%10.75 1.4–0.8xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 72%@1.48 ✓
FT Palmeiras2 Sporting Cristal1 171%1.18X17%7.40212%11.50 2.0–0.8xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 64%@1.62 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Corinthians vs Santa Fe?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.

Who will win Corinthians vs Santa Fe?

On our numbers Corinthians have a 54% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Santa Fe 22%.

How many goals will there be in Corinthians vs Santa Fe?

We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Corinthians vs Santa Fe?

Our predicted score is Corinthians 1–0 Santa Fe, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.

When is Corinthians vs Santa Fe?

Corinthians vs Santa Fe (CONMEBOL Libertadores) kicks off on Thursday 16 April 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Neo Química Arena.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.