Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.00 – our chance 55% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultIndependiente del Valle to win ✓72% · @1.29
Double chanceIndependiente del Valle or draw ✓91% · @1.05
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @2.00
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.68
Independiente del Valle vs UCV: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Thursday 16 April the CONMEBOL Libertadores brings Independiente del Valle against UCV at Estadio Banco De Guayaquil. Kick-off: 03:00 WAT. In the table, Independiente del Valle are 1st on 13 points after 6 matches; UCV are 3rd with 9.
Current form
Independiente del Valle, last 4: DLWW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Rosario Central, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
UCV, last 3: WLW Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Libertad Asuncion, at home. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Independiente del Valle 2.2 xG, UCV 0.7 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 56%, GG 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Independiente del Valle 72%, draw 18%, UCV 9%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 2.00.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.00 – the bookmaker implies 50%, our ratings say 55%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (78%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Independiente del Valle 2–0 UCV. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Independiente del Valle72%fair 1.38 · @1.29
Draw18%fair 5.51 · @5.00
UCV9%fair 10.61 · @10.50
2.87Expected goals
2.17Independiente del Valle xG
0.70UCV xG
55%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–013%
1–012%
3–010%
2–19%
1–19%
3–17%
From our goals model: Independiente del Valle 2.2 – 0.7 UCV expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente del Valle to win✓
72%
1.38
1.29
Double chance
Independiente del Valle or draw✓
91%
1.10
1.05
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.82
2.00 ▲
Draw no bet
Independiente del Valle (draw no bet)✓
88%
1.13
–
Asian handicap
Independiente del Valle -1 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.29
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.79
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
66%
1.52
1.48
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
1.18
First team to score
Independiente del Valle to score first
71%
1.40
–
Half-time result
Independiente del Valle ahead at half-time✓
51%
1.96
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente del Valle / FT Independiente del Valle✓
47%
2.13
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.68
–
Recent results
Independiente del Valle – last 4
DLWW
9 Apr
@ Rosario Central
0–0
D
20 Mar
@ Emelec
0–2
L
3 Mar
@ Manta FC
2–0
W
23 Feb
vs Guayaquil City FC
2–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
UCV – last 3
WLW
9 Apr
vs Libertad Asuncion
3–1
W
17 Mar
@ Puerto Cabello
0–3
L
22 Feb
@ Caracas FC
2–1
W
1.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Independiente del Valle and UCV.
What is the prediction for Independiente del Valle vs UCV?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Independiente del Valle vs UCV?
On our numbers Independiente del Valle have a 72% chance of winning, the draw 18% and UCV 9%.
How many goals will there be in Independiente del Valle vs UCV?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Independiente del Valle vs UCV?
Our predicted score is Independiente del Valle 2–0 UCV, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Independiente del Valle vs UCV?
Independiente del Valle vs UCV (CONMEBOL Libertadores) kicks off on Thursday 16 April 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Banco De Guayaquil.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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