Wednesday 11 November 2026 20 live now 66% correct · last 30 days JackpotsNewsTelegram18+
BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Palmeiras v Sporting Cristal: numbers & prediction

CONMEBOL Libertadores · South America · Allianz Parque

Palmeiras

DWWWW
2–1
FT

Sporting Cristal

WLWWD
Palmeiras 71%Draw 17%Sporting Cristal 12% Expected goals 2.00 – 0.79
64%
Betarazi pick

Under 3.5 goals

Good pick · fair odds 1.57 · bookmaker 1.62 · Won ✓

6/10Rating
1.62Odds
GG

Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.25 – our chance 54% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Picks by market

ResultPalmeiras to win ✓71% · @1.18
Double chancePalmeiras or draw ✓88% · @1.03
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @2.25
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · @1.14
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓10% · fair 10.29

Palmeiras vs Sporting Cristal: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Palmeiras welcome Sporting Cristal to Allianz Parque for a CONMEBOL Libertadores fixture on Thursday 16 April (23:00 WAT). In the table, Palmeiras are 2nd on 11 points after 6 matches; Sporting Cristal are 3rd with 6.

Current form

Palmeiras, last 5: DWWWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Junior, away. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.

Sporting Cristal, last 5: WLWWD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Cerro Porteno, at home. Goals for and against: 1.6 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Palmeiras 2.0 xG, Sporting Cristal 0.8 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 58%, GG 54%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Palmeiras 71%, draw 17%, Sporting Cristal 12%.
  • GG/NG: GG (54%) at 2.25.
  • Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.25 – the bookmaker implies 44%, our ratings say 54%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (64%, odds 1.62 – longer than our fair 1.57, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Palmeiras 2–0 Sporting Cristal. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Palmeiras71%fair 1.41 · @1.18
Draw17%fair 5.83 · @7.40
Sporting Cristal12%fair 8.35 · @11.50
2.80Expected goals
2.00Palmeiras xG
0.79Sporting Cristal xG
54%Both score
58%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

2–012%
1–012%
2–110%
1–110%
3–08%
3–16%

From our goals model: Palmeiras 2.0 – 0.8 Sporting Cristal expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultPalmeiras to win ✓71%1.411.18
Double chancePalmeiras or draw ✓88%1.141.03
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓54%1.862.25 ▲
Draw no betPalmeiras (draw no bet) ✓86%1.17–
Asian handicapPalmeiras -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓66%1.52–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80%1.251.14
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✓58%1.731.50
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓64%1.571.62
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓80%1.251.25
First team to scorePalmeiras to score first67%1.49–
Half-time resultPalmeiras ahead at half-time ✗47%2.13–
Half-time / full-timeHT Palmeiras / FT Palmeiras ✗42%2.37–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓10%10.29–

Recent results

Palmeiras – last 6

DWWWWL
9 Apr@ Junior1–1D
5 Apr@ Bahia2–1W
3 Aprvs Gremio2–1W
22 Mar@ Sao Paulo1–0W
18 Marvs Botafogo2–1W
12 Mar@ Vasco DA Gama1–2L
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Sporting Cristal – last 5

WLWWD
9 Aprvs Cerro Porteno1–0W
3 Aprvs UCV Moquegua1–2L
15 Marvs Sport Boys3–0W
4 Mar@ Carabobo FC1–0W
18 Feb@ 2 de Mayo2–2D
1.6Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
40%Both scored
60%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Palmeiras and Sporting Cristal.

Palmeiras vs Sporting Cristal head-to-head page →

CONMEBOL Libertadores table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Cerro Porteno6411+413
2Palmeiras6321+511
3Sporting Cristal6204-36
4Junior6114-64

More CONMEBOL Libertadores predictions

League hub
FT Corinthians2 Santa Fe0 154%1.40X25%4.10222%9.00 1.3–0.9xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 80%@1.22 ✓
FT Fluminense1 Independ. Rivadavia2 159%1.64X24%3.65217%5.40 1.3–0.6xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 82%@1.22 ✓
FT Independiente del Valle3 UCV1 172%1.29X18%5.0029%10.50 2.2–0.7xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 78%@1.22 ✓
FT Lanus1 Always Ready0 161%1.25X21%5.70218%10.75 1.4–0.8xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 72%@1.48 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Palmeiras vs Sporting Cristal?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.

Who will win Palmeiras vs Sporting Cristal?

On our numbers Palmeiras have a 71% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Sporting Cristal 12%.

How many goals will there be in Palmeiras vs Sporting Cristal?

We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Palmeiras vs Sporting Cristal?

Our predicted score is Palmeiras 2–0 Sporting Cristal, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.

When is Palmeiras vs Sporting Cristal?

Palmeiras vs Sporting Cristal (CONMEBOL Libertadores) kicks off on Thursday 16 April 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Allianz Parque.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.