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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Cruzeiro v U. Catolica: numbers & prediction

CONMEBOL Libertadores · South America · Governador Magalhães Pinto

Cruzeiro

WWLDL
1–2
FT

U. Catolica

LWWLD
Cruzeiro 57%Draw 24%U. Catolica 18% Expected goals 1.65 – 0.97
73%
Betarazi pick

Under 3.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.36 · bookmaker 1.28 · Won ✓

8/10Rating
1.28Odds
GG

Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.10 – our chance 54% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Picks by market

ResultCruzeiro to win ✗57% · @1.48
Double chanceCruzeiro or draw ✗82% · @1.09
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.39

Cruzeiro vs U. Catolica: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Cruzeiro welcome U. Catolica to Governador Magalhães Pinto for a CONMEBOL Libertadores fixture on Wednesday 15 April (23:00 WAT). In the table, Cruzeiro are 2nd on 11 points after 6 matches; U. Catolica are 1st with 13. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

Cruzeiro, last 5: WWLDL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Barcelona SC, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.

U. Catolica, last 5: LWWLD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Boca Juniors, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Cruzeiro 1.7 xG, U. Catolica 1.0 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 54%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Cruzeiro 57%, draw 24%, U. Catolica 18%.
  • GG/NG: GG (54%) at 2.10.
  • Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.10 – the bookmaker implies 48%, our ratings say 54%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (73%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Cruzeiro 1–0 U. Catolica. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Cruzeiro57%fair 1.74 · @1.48
Draw24%fair 4.14 · @3.90
U. Catolica18%fair 5.44 · @7.10
2.62Expected goals
1.65Cruzeiro xG
0.97U. Catolica xG
54%Both score
48%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–012%
1–112%
2–010%
2–110%
0–07%
0–17%

From our goals model: Cruzeiro 1.7 – 1.0 U. Catolica expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultCruzeiro to win ✗57%1.741.48
Double chanceCruzeiro or draw ✗82%1.231.09
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓54%1.862.10 ▲
Draw no betCruzeiro (draw no bet) ✗76%1.32–
Asian handicapU. Catolica +1 (Asian handicap) ✓62%1.62–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓72%1.401.35
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗52%1.921.77
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73%1.361.28
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓87%1.151.09
First team to scoreCruzeiro to score first ✗59%1.71–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗42%2.37–
Half-time / full-timeHT Cruzeiro / FT Cruzeiro ✗33%3.06–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10%10.39–

Recent results

Cruzeiro – last 6

WWLDLD
8 Apr@ Barcelona SC1–0W
2 Aprvs Vitoria3–0W
18 Mar@ Atletico Paranaense1–2L
16 Marvs Vasco DA Gama3–3D
12 Mar@ Flamengo0–2L
26 Febvs Corinthians1–1D
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

U. Catolica – last 6

LWWLDL
8 Aprvs Boca Juniors1–2L
2 Aprvs Palestino6–1W
30 Mar@ Cobresal3–1W
25 Mar@ Nublense0–1L
15 Marvs Everton de Vina2–2D
8 Mar@ O'Higgins0–1L
2.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Cruzeiro and U. Catolica.

Cruzeiro vs U. Catolica head-to-head page →

CONMEBOL Libertadores table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1U. Catolica6411+413
2Cruzeiro6321+511
3Boca Juniors6213+17
4Barcelona SC6105-103

More CONMEBOL Libertadores predictions

League hub
FT Boca Juniors3 Barcelona SC0 164%1.29X24%4.70212%12.50 1.5–0.6xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 79%@1.25 ✓
FT Bolívar1 Deportivo La Guaira1 165%1.22X19%5.60216%14.00 1.6–0.7xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 70%@1.60 ✓
FT LDU de Quito2 Mirassol0 153%1.76X26%3.70221%4.30 1.2–0.7xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 79%@1.33 ✓
FT Universitario0 Coquimbo Unido2 148%1.90X28%3.10224%4.50 1.2–0.9xG 1XUniversitario or draw 76%@1.20 ✗
FT Libertad Asuncion0 Rosario Central1 130%3.40X28%3.10243%2.22 1.0–1.3xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 79%@1.22 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Cruzeiro vs U. Catolica?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.

Who will win Cruzeiro vs U. Catolica?

On our numbers Cruzeiro have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 24% and U. Catolica 18%.

How many goals will there be in Cruzeiro vs U. Catolica?

We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Cruzeiro vs U. Catolica?

Our predicted score is Cruzeiro 1–0 U. Catolica, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.

When is Cruzeiro vs U. Catolica?

Cruzeiro vs U. Catolica (CONMEBOL Libertadores) kicks off on Wednesday 15 April 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Governador Magalhães Pinto.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.