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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

LDU de Quito v Mirassol: numbers & prediction

CONMEBOL Libertadores · South America · Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

LDU de Quito

LWLWW
2–0
FT

Mirassol

WLLLD
LDU de Quito 53%Draw 26%Mirassol 21% Expected goals 1.21 – 0.73
79%
Betarazi pick

Under 3.5 goals

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.33 · Won ✓

9/10Rating
1.33Odds
U2.5

Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.85 – our chance 60% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Picks by market

ResultLDU de Quito to win ✓53% · @1.76
Double chanceLDU de Quito or draw ✓79% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.99

LDU de Quito vs Mirassol: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Mirassol travel to face LDU de Quito on Wednesday 15 April in the CONMEBOL Libertadores, with Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado the venue – the ball rolls at 03:00 WAT. In the table, LDU de Quito are 1st on 12 points after 6 matches; Mirassol are 2nd with 12. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

LDU de Quito, last 5: LWLWW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Delfin SC, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Mirassol, last 5: WLLLD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Lanus, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.

Momentum favours LDU de Quito, collecting 1.7 points per game to 0.7 for Mirassol.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give LDU de Quito 1.2 xG, Mirassol 0.7 xG – a total near 1.9. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 60%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – LDU de Quito 53%, draw 26%, Mirassol 21%.
  • Lower-risk option: LDU de Quito or draw (79%) at 1.18.
  • GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.80.
  • Price worth noting: Under 2.5 goals @1.85 – the bookmaker implies 54%, our ratings say 60%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (79%, odds 1.33 – longer than our fair 1.27, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: LDU de Quito 1–0 Mirassol. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

LDU de Quito53%fair 1.90 · @1.76
Draw26%fair 3.81 · @3.70
Mirassol21%fair 4.74 · @4.30
1.95Expected goals
1.21LDU de Quito xG
0.73Mirassol xG
54%Both score
40%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–017%
0–014%
1–113%
0–110%
2–010%
2–18%

From our goals model: LDU de Quito 1.2 – 0.7 Mirassol expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultLDU de Quito to win ✓53%1.901.76
Double chanceLDU de Quito or draw ✓79%1.271.18
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗54%1.851.80
Draw no betLDU de Quito (draw no bet) ✓71%1.40–
Asian handicapMirassol +1 (Asian handicap) ✗71%1.40–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓65%1.541.30
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓60%1.671.85 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79%1.271.33
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓90%1.111.11
First team to scoreLDU de Quito to score first ✓53%1.87–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗50%2.00–
Half-time / full-timeHT LDU de Quito / FT LDU de Quito ✓27%3.66–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8%12.99–

Recent results

LDU de Quito – last 6

LWLWWD
11 Apr@ Delfin SC0–1L
8 Apr@ Always Ready1–0W
4 Aprvs Barcelona SC0–2L
22 Marvs Manta FC1–0W
18 Mar@ Leones del Norte2–0W
15 Marvs Universidad Catolica1–1D
0.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
0%Over 2.5

Mirassol – last 6

WLLLDL
8 Aprvs Lanus1–0W
6 Aprvs RB Bragantino0–1L
1 Apr@ Botafogo2–3L
19 Marvs Coritiba0–1L
11 Marvs Santos2–2D
16 Febvs Portuguesa1–2L
1.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between LDU de Quito and Mirassol.

LDU de Quito vs Mirassol head-to-head page →

CONMEBOL Libertadores table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1LDU de Quito6402+312
2Mirassol6402+312
3Lanus6303-49
4Always Ready6105-23

More CONMEBOL Libertadores predictions

League hub
FT Boca Juniors3 Barcelona SC0 164%1.29X24%4.70212%12.50 1.5–0.6xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 79%@1.25 ✓
FT Bolívar1 Deportivo La Guaira1 165%1.22X19%5.60216%14.00 1.6–0.7xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 70%@1.60 ✓
FT Universitario0 Coquimbo Unido2 148%1.90X28%3.10224%4.50 1.2–0.9xG 1XUniversitario or draw 76%@1.20 ✗
FT Cruzeiro1 U. Catolica2 157%1.48X24%3.90218%7.10 1.7–1.0xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 73%@1.28 ✓
FT Libertad Asuncion0 Rosario Central1 130%3.40X28%3.10243%2.22 1.0–1.3xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 79%@1.22 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for LDU de Quito vs Mirassol?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.

Who will win LDU de Quito vs Mirassol?

On our numbers LDU de Quito have a 53% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Mirassol 21%.

How many goals will there be in LDU de Quito vs Mirassol?

We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for LDU de Quito vs Mirassol?

Our predicted score is LDU de Quito 1–0 Mirassol, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.

When is LDU de Quito vs Mirassol?

LDU de Quito vs Mirassol (CONMEBOL Libertadores) kicks off on Wednesday 15 April 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.