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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Cruzeiro v Boca Juniors: numbers & prediction

CONMEBOL Libertadores · South America · Governador Magalhães Pinto

Cruzeiro

DWLWW
1–0
FT

Boca Juniors

WWDWW
Cruzeiro 37%Draw 28%Boca Juniors 34% Expected goals 1.22 – 1.18
78%
Betarazi pick

Under 3.5 goals

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓

9/10Rating
1.20Odds
2

Value bet: Boca Juniors to win @ 3.30 – our chance 34% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Picks by market

ResultCruzeiro to win ✓37% · @2.35
Double chanceEither team to win ✓72% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.57

Cruzeiro vs Boca Juniors: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Wednesday 29 April the CONMEBOL Libertadores brings Cruzeiro against Boca Juniors at Governador Magalhães Pinto. Kick-off: 01:30 WAT. In the table, Cruzeiro are 2nd on 11 points after 6 matches; Boca Juniors are 3rd with 7.

Current form

Cruzeiro, last 5: DWLWW Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Goias, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Boca Juniors, last 5: WWDWW Their latest outing: 4–0 win over Defensa Y Justicia, away. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.2 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.

Momentum favours Boca Juniors, collecting 2.7 points per game to 1.7 for Cruzeiro.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Cruzeiro 1.2 xG, Boca Juniors 1.2 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 41%, GG 57%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Cruzeiro 37%, draw 28%, Boca Juniors 34%.
  • GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.95.
  • Price worth noting: Boca Juniors to win @3.30 – the bookmaker implies 30%, our ratings say 34%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (78%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Cruzeiro 1–1 Boca Juniors. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Cruzeiro37%fair 2.68 · @2.35
Draw28%fair 3.51 · @2.92
Boca Juniors34%fair 2.92 · @3.30
2.40Expected goals
1.22Cruzeiro xG
1.18Boca Juniors xG
57%Both score
41%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–113%
1–011%
0–111%
0–09%
2–18%
1–28%

From our goals model: Cruzeiro 1.2 – 1.2 Boca Juniors expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultCruzeiro to win ✓37%2.682.35
Double chanceEither team to win ✓72%1.401.33
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗57%1.751.95 ▲
Draw no betCruzeiro (draw no bet) ✓52%1.92–
Asian handicapBoca Juniors +0.5 (Asian handicap) ✗63%1.59–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✗67%1.491.45
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓59%1.711.57
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78%1.281.20
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓90%1.111.05
First team to scoreCruzeiro to score first ✓46%2.17–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✓45%2.21–
Half-time / full-timeHT Cruzeiro / FT Cruzeiro ✗21%4.73–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8%12.57–

Recent results

Cruzeiro – last 6

DWLWWL
22 Apr@ Goias2–2D
19 Aprvs Gremio2–0W
15 Aprvs U. Catolica1–2L
8 Apr@ Barcelona SC1–0W
2 Aprvs Vitoria3–0W
18 Mar@ Atletico Paranaense1–2L
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Boca Juniors – last 6

WWDWWW
24 Apr@ Defensa Y Justicia4–0W
15 Aprvs Barcelona SC3–0W
11 Aprvs Independiente1–1D
8 Apr@ U. Catolica2–1W
3 Apr@ Talleres Cordoba1–0W
23 Marvs Instituto Cordoba2–0W
2.2Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Cruzeiro and Boca Juniors.

Cruzeiro vs Boca Juniors head-to-head page →

CONMEBOL Libertadores table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1U. Catolica6411+413
2Cruzeiro6321+511
3Boca Juniors6213+17
4Barcelona SC6105-103

More CONMEBOL Libertadores predictions

League hub
FT UCV0 Rosario Central3 119%5.40X24%3.65257%1.64 0.9–1.6xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 74%@1.30 ✓
FT Deportes Tolima3 Coquimbo Unido0 151%1.60X27%3.45222%6.40 1.2–0.9xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 81%@1.20 ✓
FT Sporting Cristal2 Junior0 148%2.50X24%3.20228%2.82 1.7–1.1xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 70%@1.45 ✓
FT Mirassol2 Always Ready0 161%1.24X21%5.70218%11.50 1.5–0.9xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 70%@1.48 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Cruzeiro vs Boca Juniors?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.

Who will win Cruzeiro vs Boca Juniors?

On our numbers Cruzeiro have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Boca Juniors 34%.

How many goals will there be in Cruzeiro vs Boca Juniors?

We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Cruzeiro vs Boca Juniors?

Our predicted score is Cruzeiro 1–1 Boca Juniors, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.

When is Cruzeiro vs Boca Juniors?

Cruzeiro vs Boca Juniors (CONMEBOL Libertadores) kicks off on Wednesday 29 April 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Governador Magalhães Pinto.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.