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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Deportes Tolima v Club Nacional: numbers & prediction

CONMEBOL Libertadores · South America · Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro

Deportes Tolima

WLWLL
3–0
FT

Club Nacional

LLWWD
Deportes Tolima 41%Draw 27%Club Nacional 32% Expected goals 1.25 – 1.18
78%
Betarazi pick

Under 3.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓

9/10Rating
1.20Odds
2

Value bet: Club Nacional to win @ 3.50 – our chance 32% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Picks by market

ResultDeportes Tolima to win ✓41% · @2.12
Double chanceEither team to win ✓73% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.34

Deportes Tolima vs Club Nacional: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

03:00 WAT, Thursday 7 May: Deportes Tolima v Club Nacional in the CONMEBOL Libertadores, played at Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro. In the table, Deportes Tolima are 2nd on 8 points after 6 matches; Club Nacional are 3rd with 8. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

Deportes Tolima, last 5: WLWLL Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Coquimbo Unido, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Club Nacional, last 5: LLWWD Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Albion FC, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.

Head to head

When they last met (14 Apr 2026) it ended Club Nacional 3–1 Deportes Tolima.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Deportes Tolima 1.2 xG, Club Nacional 1.2 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 57%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Deportes Tolima 41%, draw 27%, Club Nacional 32%.
  • GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.95.
  • Price worth noting: Club Nacional to win @3.50 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 32%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (78%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Deportes Tolima 1–1 Club Nacional. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Deportes Tolima41%fair 2.44 · @2.12
Draw27%fair 3.71 · @3.20
Club Nacional32%fair 3.12 · @3.50
2.42Expected goals
1.25Deportes Tolima xG
1.18Club Nacional xG
57%Both score
42%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
0–09%
2–18%
1–28%

From our goals model: Deportes Tolima 1.2 – 1.2 Club Nacional expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultDeportes Tolima to win ✓41%2.442.12
Double chanceEither team to win ✓73%1.371.28
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗57%1.751.95 ▲
Draw no betDeportes Tolima (draw no bet) ✓56%1.78–
Asian handicapClub Nacional +0.5 (Asian handicap) ✗62%1.61–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓67%1.481.44
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗58%1.731.60
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78%1.281.20
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓90%1.111.05
First team to scoreDeportes Tolima to score first ✓47%2.13–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗45%2.22–
Half-time / full-timeHT Deportes Tolima / FT Deportes Tolima ✓22%4.60–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8%12.34–

Recent results

Deportes Tolima – last 6

WLWLLD
29 Aprvs Coquimbo Unido3–0W
24 Apr@ Millonarios0–2L
19 Aprvs Deportivo Pereira2–0W
14 Apr@ Club Nacional1–3L
11 Apr@ Deportivo Pasto0–1L
8 Aprvs Universitario0–0D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Club Nacional – last 6

LLWWDL
4 May@ Albion FC2–3L
30 Apr@ Universitario2–4L
19 Apr@ Liverpool Montevideo3–1W
14 Aprvs Deportes Tolima3–1W
8 Apr@ Coquimbo Unido1–1D
4 Aprvs Central Espanol0–1L
1.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Head to head

14 Apr 2026Club Nacional v Deportes Tolima3–1
Deportes Tolima vs Club Nacional head-to-head page →

CONMEBOL Libertadores table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Coquimbo Unido6312+210
2Deportes Tolima6222+18
3Club Nacional6222-28
4Universitario6132-16

More CONMEBOL Libertadores predictions

League hub
FT Independ. Rivadavia1 Fluminense1 141%2.32X27%3.05232%3.20 1.2–1.2xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 78%@1.20 ✓
FT Santa Fe1 Corinthians1 135%2.92X28%3.00236%2.54 1.2–1.0xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 63%@1.53 ✓
FT U. Catolica0 Cruzeiro0 136%2.96X26%3.20238%2.38 1.3–1.3xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 72%@1.36 ✗
FT Mirassol2 LDU de Quito0 152%1.54X26%3.90222%6.20 1.2–0.8xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 79%@1.28 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Deportes Tolima vs Club Nacional?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.

Who will win Deportes Tolima vs Club Nacional?

On our numbers Deportes Tolima have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Club Nacional 32%.

How many goals will there be in Deportes Tolima vs Club Nacional?

We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Deportes Tolima vs Club Nacional?

Our predicted score is Deportes Tolima 1–1 Club Nacional, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.

When is Deportes Tolima vs Club Nacional?

Deportes Tolima vs Club Nacional (CONMEBOL Libertadores) kicks off on Thursday 7 May 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.