Mirassol 52%Draw 26%LDU de Quito 22%Expected goals 1.22 – 0.84
79%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.28 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.28Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.05 – our chance 52% vs 49% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultMirassol to win ✓52% · @1.54
Double chanceMirassol or draw ✓78% · @1.11
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @2.05
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.54
Mirassol vs LDU de Quito: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Thursday 7 May the CONMEBOL Libertadores brings Mirassol against LDU de Quito at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia. Kick-off: 23:00 WAT. In the table, Mirassol are 2nd on 12 points after 6 matches; LDU de Quito are 1st with 12. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Mirassol, last 5: WWLDW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Corinthians, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
LDU de Quito, last 5: LLDWL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Lanus, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 3 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Mirassol, collecting 1.7 points per game to 1.2 for LDU de Quito.
Head to head
When they last met (15 Apr 2026) it ended LDU de Quito 2–0 Mirassol.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Mirassol 1.2 xG, LDU de Quito 0.8 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 60%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Mirassol 52%, draw 26%, LDU de Quito 22%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 2.05.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.05 – the bookmaker implies 49%, our ratings say 52%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (79%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Mirassol 1–0 LDU de Quito. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Mirassol52%fair 1.92 · @1.54
Draw26%fair 3.91 · @3.90
LDU de Quito22%fair 4.47 · @6.20
2.06Expected goals
1.22Mirassol xG
0.84LDU de Quito xG
52%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–016%
1–113%
0–013%
0–111%
2–09%
2–18%
From our goals model: Mirassol 1.2 – 0.8 LDU de Quito expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Mirassol vs LDU de Quito?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Mirassol vs LDU de Quito?
On our numbers Mirassol have a 52% chance of winning, the draw 26% and LDU de Quito 22%.
How many goals will there be in Mirassol vs LDU de Quito?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mirassol vs LDU de Quito?
Our predicted score is Mirassol 1–0 LDU de Quito, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Mirassol vs LDU de Quito?
Mirassol vs LDU de Quito (CONMEBOL Libertadores) kicks off on Thursday 7 May 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Independ. Rivadavia1
Fluminense1
Santa Fe1
Corinthians1
Deportes Tolima3
Club Nacional0
U. Catolica0
Cruzeiro0