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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Independência v Araguaína: numbers & prediction

Serie D · Brazil

Independência

WLLLD
1–0
FT

Araguaína

WLWDD
Independência 26%Draw 25%Araguaína 49% Expected goals 1.23 – 1.67
57%
Betarazi pick

Both teams to score

Fair pick · fair odds 1.75 · bookmaker 1.73 · Lost ✗

4/10Rating
1.73Odds

Picks by market

ResultAraguaína to win ✗49% · @1.91
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.29
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗78% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.60

Independência vs Araguaína: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Independência welcome Araguaína for a Serie D fixture on Sunday 17 May (22:00 WAT).

Current form

Independência, last 5: WLLLD Their latest outing: 3–2 win over GAS, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.

Araguaína, last 5: WLWDD Their latest outing: 7–0 win over Humaitá, away. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 4. 2.3 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Momentum favours Araguaína, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.7 for Independência.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Independência 1.2 xG, Araguaína 1.7 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 55%, GG 57%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Independência 26%, draw 25%, Araguaína 49%.
  • GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.73.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (57%, odds 1.73). Most likely score in line with that pick: Independência 1–1 Araguaína. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Independência26%fair 3.84 · @3.40
Draw25%fair 3.94 · @3.20
Araguaína49%fair 2.06 · @1.91
2.90Expected goals
1.23Independência xG
1.67Araguaína xG
57%Both score
55%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–111%
1–29%
0–19%
0–28%
2–17%
1–07%

From our goals model: Independência 1.2 – 1.7 Araguaína expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultAraguaína to win ✗49%2.061.91
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75%1.341.29
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗57%1.751.73
Draw no betAraguaína (draw no bet) ✗65%1.54–
Asian handicapIndependência +1 (Asian handicap) ✓68%1.48–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✗78%1.27–
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✗55%1.81–
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓67%1.49–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓83%1.20–
First team to scoreAraguaína to score first ✗54%1.84–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✓40%2.49–
Half-time / full-timeHT Araguaína / FT Araguaína ✗29%3.47–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9%10.60–

Recent results

Independência – last 6

WLLLDL
29 Aprvs GAS3–2W
19 Apr@ Galvez1–2L
15 Apr@ Paysandu1–2L
8 Apr@ Trem0–4L
26 Marvs Guaporé0–0D
6 Marvs Galvez1–2L
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5

Araguaína – last 6

WLWDDW
11 May@ Humaitá7–0W
29 Aprvs Vila Nova1–2L
15 Apr@ Rio Branco ES3–1W
8 Aprvs Capital Brasilia0–0D
5 Apr@ Galvez1–1D
29 Mar@ Primavera MG2–0W
2.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Independência and Araguaína.

Independência vs Araguaína head-to-head page →

More Serie D predictions

FT Central SC0 Maguary PE0 147%2.00X26%3.00226%3.60 1.3–0.9xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 80%@1.20 ✓
FT Atlético Alagoinhas0 Jacuipense1 136%2.40X28%2.80236%2.80 1.3–1.3xG GGBoth teams to score 54%@1.83 ✗
FT America-RN5 Laguna0 171%1.15X18%5.50211%19.00 1.8–0.5xG NGNot both teams to score 53%@1.36 ✓
FT Brasil DE Pelotas0 Sao Jose0 140%2.45X31%2.45228%3.20 1.2–0.9xG 1XBrasil DE Pelotas or draw 72%@1.30 ✓
FT Cianorte1 Cascavel0 142%2.05X29%2.62229%3.80 1.2–1.0xG 1XCianorte or draw 71%@1.22 ✓
FT CRAC2 ABECAT Ouvidorense1 147%1.75X27%2.90225%4.50 1.0–0.8xG GGBoth teams to score 50%@2.15 ✓
FT CSE1 CSA5 117%5.00X23%3.20260%1.62 1.0–2.0xG 2CSA to win 60%@1.62 ✓
FT Tuna Luso2 Águia de Marabá1 136%2.40X26%2.90237%2.70 1.5–1.5xG GGBoth teams to score 54%@1.83 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Independência vs Araguaína?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.

Who will win Independência vs Araguaína?

On our numbers Independência have a 26% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Araguaína 49%.

How many goals will there be in Independência vs Araguaína?

We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Independência vs Araguaína?

Our predicted score is Independência 1–1 Araguaína, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.

When is Independência vs Araguaína?

Independência vs Araguaína (Serie D) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.