Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
2
Value bet: Aparecidense to win @ 1.95 – our chance 61% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAparecidense to win ✗61% · @1.95
Double chanceAparecidense or draw ✓84% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.61
Inhumas vs Aparecidense: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 17 May the Serie D brings Inhumas against Aparecidense. Kick-off: 21:00 WAT.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Inhumas 0.7 xG, Aparecidense 1.8 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 52%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Inhumas 16%, draw 23%, Aparecidense 61%.
Lower-risk option: Aparecidense or draw (84%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.91.
Price worth noting: Aparecidense to win @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 61%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Aparecidense or draw (84%, odds 1.25 – longer than our fair 1.19, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Inhumas 0–1 Aparecidense. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Inhumas16%fair 6.39 · @3.50
Draw23%fair 4.36 · @2.90
Aparecidense61%fair 1.63 · @1.95
2.50Expected goals
0.75Inhumas xG
1.75Aparecidense xG
52%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–114%
0–213%
1–111%
1–29%
0–08%
0–37%
From our goals model: Inhumas 0.7 – 1.8 Aparecidense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Aparecidense to win✗
61%
1.63
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Aparecidense or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.25 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.93
1.91
Draw no bet
Aparecidense (draw no bet)
80%
1.25
–
Asian handicap
Aparecidense -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
–
First team to score
Aparecidense to score first
64%
1.55
–
Half-time result
Aparecidense ahead at half-time✗
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Aparecidense / FT Aparecidense✗
38%
2.61
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.61
–
Recent results
Inhumas – last 1
L
11 Apr
@ Gama
0–2
L
0.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Aparecidense – last 1
W
18 Feb
vs Centro Oeste
4–0
W
4.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Inhumas and Aparecidense.
What is the prediction for Inhumas vs Aparecidense?
Our pick is Aparecidense or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Inhumas vs Aparecidense?
On our numbers Inhumas have a 16% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Aparecidense 61%.
How many goals will there be in Inhumas vs Aparecidense?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Inhumas vs Aparecidense?
Our predicted score is Inhumas 0–1 Aparecidense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Inhumas vs Aparecidense?
Inhumas vs Aparecidense (Serie D) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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