Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.28 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.28Odds
U3.5
Value bet: Under 3.5 goals @ 2.10 – our chance 56% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultSpain to win ✗80% · @1.06
Double chanceSpain or draw ✓92% · fair 1.08
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗53% · @1.42
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓83% · @1.07
Correct scoreCorrect score 3–0 ✗12% · fair 8.29
Spain vs Iraq: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Thursday 4 June the Friendlies brings Spain against Iraq at Estadio Riazor. Kick-off: 20:00 WAT.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Spain 2.3 xG, Iraq 0.5 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 64%, GG 47%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Spain 80%, draw 12%, Iraq 8%.
GG/NG: NG (53%) at 1.42.
Price worth noting: Under 3.5 goals @2.10 – the bookmaker implies 48%, our ratings say 56%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (64%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Spain 3–0 Iraq. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Spain80%fair 1.25 · @1.06
Draw12%fair 8.37 · @12.00
Iraq8%fair 12.86 · @25.00
2.86Expected goals
2.33Spain xG
0.53Iraq xG
47%Both score
64%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–016%
1–013%
3–012%
2–18%
1–17%
4–07%
From our goals model: Spain 2.3 – 0.5 Iraq expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Spain
Iraq
Attack vs Friendlies average
+3%
-11%
Goals conceded vs average
-10%
-3%
Our expected goals here
2.62
0.65
Our own ratings from every Friendlies result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Spain to win✗
80%
1.25
1.06
Double chance
Spain or draw✓
92%
1.08
–
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
53%
1.90
1.42
Draw no bet
Spain (draw no bet)
91%
1.10
–
Asian handicap
Spain -1 (Asian handicap)✗
71%
1.41
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
1.07
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
64%
1.56
1.28
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
56%
1.78
2.10 ▲
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
74%
1.36
1.48 ▲
First team to score
Spain to score first
77%
1.30
–
Half-time result
Spain ahead at half-time✗
56%
1.79
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Spain / FT Spain✗
53%
1.88
–
Correct score
Correct score 3–0✗
12%
8.29
–
Recent results
Spain – last 2
DW
31 Mar
vs Egypt
0–0
D
27 Mar
vs Serbia
3–0
W
1.5Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Iraq – last 2
WW
29 May
vs Andorra
1–0
W
1 Apr
vs Bolivia
2–1
W
1.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Spain and Iraq.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Spain vs Iraq?
On our numbers Spain have a 80% chance of winning, the draw 12% and Iraq 8%.
How many goals will there be in Spain vs Iraq?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Spain vs Iraq?
Our predicted score is Spain 3–0 Iraq, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Spain vs Iraq?
Spain vs Iraq (Friendlies) kicks off on Thursday 4 June 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Riazor.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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