Value bet: Draw @ 3.00 – our chance 38% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultDraw ✗38% · @3.00
Double chanceNumancia or draw ✗70% · @1.57
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗60% · fair 1.66
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗66% · @1.50
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–0 ✗15% · fair 6.47
Poblense vs Numancia: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Numancia travel to face Poblense on Sunday 17 May in the Segunda División RFEF Play Offs – the ball rolls at 11:00 WAT.
Current form
Poblense, last 5: WLWWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Numancia, away. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Numancia, last 5: LWDWD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Poblense, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Poblense, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.5 for Numancia.
Head to head
When they last met (10 May 2026) it ended Numancia 0–1 Poblense.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Poblense 0.9 xG, Numancia 1.0 xG – a total near 1.9. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 66% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Poblense 30%, draw 38%, Numancia 32%.
Lower-risk option: Numancia or draw (70%) at 1.57.
Price worth noting: Draw @3.00 – the bookmaker implies 33%, our ratings say 38%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Numancia or draw (70%, odds 1.57 – longer than our fair 1.43, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Poblense 0–1 Numancia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Poblense30%fair 3.34 · @2.25
Draw38%fair 2.64 · @3.00
Numancia32%fair 3.11 · @2.90
1.87Expected goals
0.85Poblense xG
1.01Numancia xG
40%Both score
34%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–116%
0–015%
1–113%
1–013%
0–28%
1–27%
From our goals model: Poblense 0.9 – 1.0 Numancia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Numancia or draw with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Poblense vs Numancia?
On our numbers Poblense have a 30% chance of winning, the draw 38% and Numancia 32%.
How many goals will there be in Poblense vs Numancia?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 40% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Poblense vs Numancia?
Our predicted score is Poblense 0–1 Numancia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Poblense vs Numancia?
Poblense vs Numancia (Segunda División RFEF Play Offs) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Segunda División RFEF Play Offs · Spain
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