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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Malawi v South Sudan: numbers & prediction

Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification · Africa · Bingu National Stadium

Malawi

DL
2–1
FT

South Sudan

LW
Malawi 65%Draw 22%South Sudan 12% Expected goals 1.84 – 0.66
65%
Betarazi pick

Malawi to win

Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.65 · Won ✓

6/10Rating
1.65Odds
GG

Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.20 – our chance 51% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Picks by market

ResultMalawi to win ✓65% · @1.65
Double chanceMalawi or draw ✓88% · @1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @2.20
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓9% · fair 10.89

Malawi vs South Sudan: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

South Sudan travel to face Malawi on Friday 25 September in the Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification, with Bingu National Stadium the venue – the ball rolls at 17:00 WAT. In the table, Malawi are 3rd on 4 points after 6 matches; South Sudan are 4th with 3. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Malawi 1.8 xG, South Sudan 0.7 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 51%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Malawi 65%, draw 22%, South Sudan 12%.
  • Lower-risk option: Malawi or draw (88%) at 1.15.
  • GG/NG: GG (51%) at 2.20.
  • Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.20 – the bookmaker implies 45%, our ratings say 51%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Malawi to win (65%, odds 1.65 – longer than our fair 1.54, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Malawi 1–0 South Sudan. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Malawi65%fair 1.54 · @1.65
Draw22%fair 4.45 · @3.20
South Sudan12%fair 8.03 · @5.00
2.50Expected goals
1.84Malawi xG
0.66South Sudan xG
51%Both score
46%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–015%
2–014%
1–110%
2–19%
3–08%
0–08%

From our goals model: Malawi 1.8 – 0.7 South Sudan expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultMalawi to win ✓65%1.541.65 ▲
Double chanceMalawi or draw ✓88%1.141.15
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓51%1.962.20 ▲
Draw no betMalawi (draw no bet) ✓84%1.19–
Asian handicapMalawi -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓65%1.53–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓71%1.40–
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗54%1.84–
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76%1.32–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓89%1.12–
First team to scoreMalawi to score first ✓67%1.48–
Half-time resultMalawi ahead at half-time ✓46%2.19–
Half-time / full-timeHT Malawi / FT Malawi ✓41%2.41–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓9%10.89–

Recent results

Malawi – last 2

DL
9 Jun@ Ethiopia1–1D
6 Jun@ Ethiopia0–1L
0.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
0%Over 2.5

South Sudan – last 2

LW
29 Marvs Djibouti0–1L
26 Mar@ Djibouti4–0W
2.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
0%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Malawi and South Sudan.

Malawi vs South Sudan head-to-head page →

Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1South Africa6420+1114
2Uganda6411+313
3Congo6114-84
4South Sudan6105-63

More Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification predictions

League hub
FT Mozambique1 Senegal1 136%1.30X19%4.40245%9.00 12Either team to win 81% ✗
FT Tanzania0 Guinea-Bissau2 127%2.20X55%2.80218%3.30 1XTanzania or draw 82%@1.30 ✗
FT Niger2 Lesotho1 157%1.70X25%3.30217%4.40 1.1–0.4xG 1Niger to win 57%@1.70 ✓
FT Gambia2 Somalia1 173%1.10X19%7.5028%26.00 0.5–0.0xG NGNot both teams to score 65%@1.33 ✗
FT Nigeria2 Madagascar1 169%1.18X17%5.50214%15.00 1Nigeria to win 69%@1.18 ✓
FT Rwanda3 Liberia1 159%1.67X21%3.30220%4.75 1Rwanda to win 59%@1.67 ✓
FT Sudan1 Ethiopia0 159%1.80X25%3.00216%4.40 1.4–0.6xG 1Sudan to win 59%@1.80 ✓
FT Togo1 Burundi0 162%1.55X23%3.30215%6.00 2.6–1.4xG 1Togo to win 62%@1.55 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Malawi vs South Sudan?

Our pick is Malawi to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.

Who will win Malawi vs South Sudan?

On our numbers Malawi have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 22% and South Sudan 12%.

How many goals will there be in Malawi vs South Sudan?

We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Malawi vs South Sudan?

Our predicted score is Malawi 1–0 South Sudan, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.

When is Malawi vs South Sudan?

Malawi vs South Sudan (Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification) kicks off on Friday 25 September 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Bingu National Stadium.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.