Atletico Nacional 50%Draw 25%Once Caldas 25%Expected goals 1.73 – 0.99
77%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.30 · bookmaker 1.20
8/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Atletico Nacional to win @ 2.20 – our chance 50% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultAtletico Nacional to win50% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win75% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score60% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals77% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–110% · fair 10.25
Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
22:00 WAT, Thursday 12 November: Atletico Nacional v Once Caldas in the Primera A, played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot. In the table, Atletico Nacional are 1st, leading the league, on 39 points after 18 matches; Once Caldas are 8th (upper half) with 27. There are 12 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Atletico Nacional, last 5: DWDWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Once Caldas, away. In their own stadium the record reads 4 won, 0 lost from 4. Scoring is no problem – 2.2 a game lately.
Once Caldas, last 5: DWWWD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Atletico Nacional, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Head to head
When they last met (11 Nov 2026) it ended Once Caldas 1–1 Atletico Nacional. The last 2 head-to-heads: Atletico Nacional 0 wins, Once Caldas 1, draws 1. Those games averaged 1.5 goals and saw GG land 1 time.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Atletico Nacional 1.7 xG, Once Caldas 1.0 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 53%, GG 60%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Atletico Nacional 50%, draw 25%, Once Caldas 25%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.57.
Price worth noting: Atletico Nacional to win @2.20 – the bookmaker implies 45%, our ratings say 50%.
Betarazi verdict
We are going with Over 1.5 goals (77%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Atletico Nacional 1–1 Once Caldas. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Atletico Nacional50%fair 2.00 · @2.20
Draw25%fair 4.02 · @3.30
Once Caldas25%fair 3.98 · @3.20
2.72Expected goals
1.73Atletico Nacional xG
0.99Once Caldas xG
60%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–011%
1–111%
2–010%
2–110%
0–07%
0–17%
From our goals model: Atletico Nacional 1.7 – 1.0 Once Caldas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Atletico Nacional
Once Caldas
Attack vs Primera A average
+48%
-5%
Goals conceded vs average
-19%
-18%
Our expected goals here
1.79
0.81
Our own ratings from every Primera A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
What is the prediction for Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas?
On our numbers Atletico Nacional have a 50% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Once Caldas 25%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas?
Our predicted score is Atletico Nacional 1–1 Once Caldas, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas?
Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas (Primera A) kicks off on Thursday 12 November 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Atanasio Girardot.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
