Value bet: Jong AZ to win @ 1.77 – our chance 63% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultJong AZ to win ✗63% · @1.77
Double chanceEither team to win ✓87% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓65% · @1.38
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓68% · @1.38
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.50
Jong AZ vs MVV: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Friday 28 August the Eerste Divisie brings Jong AZ against MVV at AFAS Trainingscomplex. Kick-off: 19:00 WAT. In the table, Jong AZ are 19th, in the drop zone, on 0 points after 0 matches; MVV are 8th (upper half) with 0. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Jong AZ, last 5: LWLWW Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Emmen, away. Scoring is no problem – 3.3 a game lately.
MVV, last 5: LWWWD Their latest outing: 0–6 defeat to KRC Genk II, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Head to head
When they last met (16 Mar 2026) it ended Jong AZ 1–1 MVV.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Jong AZ 2.3 xG, MVV 1.3 xG – a total near 3.5. That is an open game on paper: 68% for three or more goals, 65% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Jong AZ 63%, draw 13%, MVV 24%.
GG/NG: GG (65%) at 1.38.
Price worth noting: Jong AZ to win @1.77 – the bookmaker implies 56%, our ratings say 63%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (68%, odds 1.38). Most likely score in line with that pick: Jong AZ 2–1 MVV. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Jong AZ63%fair 1.59 · @1.77
Draw13%fair 7.49 · @4.20
MVV24%fair 4.21 · @3.80
3.52Expected goals
2.25Jong AZ xG
1.26MVV xG
65%Both score
68%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–110%
1–18%
2–08%
3–17%
1–07%
2–26%
From our goals model: Jong AZ 2.3 – 1.3 MVV expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.38.
Who will win Jong AZ vs MVV?
On our numbers Jong AZ have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 13% and MVV 24%.
How many goals will there be in Jong AZ vs MVV?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Jong AZ vs MVV?
Our predicted score is Jong AZ 2–1 MVV, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.
When is Jong AZ vs MVV?
Jong AZ vs MVV (Eerste Divisie) kicks off on Friday 28 August 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
