Heracles vs Jong AZ: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
19:00 WAT, Friday 11 September: Heracles v Jong AZ in the Eerste Divisie, played at Asito Stadium. In the table, Heracles are 16th, lower half, on 0 points after 0 matches; Jong AZ are 19th (in the drop zone) with 0. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Heracles, last 5: WWWWW Their latest outing: 5–0 win over De Graafschap, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. 4.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Jong AZ, last 5: WWLLW Their latest outing: 6–3 win over Dordrecht, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.5 goals per game.
Momentum favours Heracles, collecting 2.5 points per game to 1.5 for Jong AZ.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Heracles 3.5 xG, Jong AZ 1.5 xG – a total near 5.0. That is an open game on paper: 88% for three or more goals, 68% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Heracles 71%, draw 19%, Jong AZ 10%.
GG/NG: GG (68%) at 1.40.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Heracles to win (71%, odds 1.36). Most likely score in line with that pick: Heracles 3–1 Jong AZ. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Heracles71%fair 1.40 · @1.36
Draw19%fair 5.37 · @5.00
Jong AZ10%fair 9.90 · @6.00
5.00Expected goals
3.47Heracles xG
1.53Jong AZ xG
68%Both score
88%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
3–17%
4–16%
2–16%
3–25%
4–25%
2–25%
From our goals model: Heracles 3.5 – 1.5 Jong AZ expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Heracles to win✓
71%
1.40
1.36
Double chance
Heracles or draw✓
90%
1.11
1.11
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
68%
1.47
1.40
Draw no bet
Heracles (draw no bet)✓
88%
1.14
–
Asian handicap
Heracles -1 (Asian handicap)
69%
1.46
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
96%
1.04
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.36
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Over 4.5 goals✓
56%
1.79
–
First team to score
Heracles to score first
69%
1.45
–
Half-time result
Heracles ahead at half-time✗
58%
1.73
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Heracles / FT Heracles✗
52%
1.91
–
Correct score
Correct score 3–1✗
7%
13.92
–
Recent results
Heracles – last 6
WWWWWL
4 Sep
vs De Graafschap
5–0
W
30 Aug
@ FC Eindhoven
3–1
W
24 Aug
@ Jong Utrecht
6–1
W
14 Aug
vs Den Bosch
3–2
W
7 Aug
@ VVV Venlo
4–3
W
24 Jul
vs Excelsior
3–5
L
4.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Jong AZ – last 6
WWLLWL
5 Sep
@ Dordrecht
6–3
W
31 Aug
vs Jong Utrecht
2–1
W
28 Aug
vs MVV
1–2
L
21 Aug
@ Emmen
1–3
L
17 Aug
@ De Graafschap
5–2
W
10 Aug
vs FC Eindhoven
0–1
L
2.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Heracles and Jong AZ.
Our pick is Heracles to win with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Heracles vs Jong AZ?
On our numbers Heracles have a 71% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Jong AZ 10%.
How many goals will there be in Heracles vs Jong AZ?
We expect about 5.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 88% likely and both teams score 68% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Heracles vs Jong AZ?
Our predicted score is Heracles 3–1 Jong AZ, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 5.0 goals in total.
When is Heracles vs Jong AZ?
Heracles vs Jong AZ (Eerste Divisie) kicks off on Friday 11 September 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Asito Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
