Jong Ajax 21%Draw 24%Waalwijk 55%Expected goals 1.55 – 2.45
79%
Betarazi pick
Waalwijk or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.30 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.30Odds
2
Value bet: Waalwijk to win @ 1.95 – our chance 55% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultWaalwijk to win ✓55% · @1.95
Double chanceWaalwijk or draw ✓79% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗69% · @1.40
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗76% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.73
Jong Ajax vs Waalwijk: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Friday 11 September the Eerste Divisie brings Jong Ajax against Waalwijk at Sportcomplex De Toekomst. Kick-off: 19:00 WAT. In the table, Jong Ajax are 18th, in the drop zone, on 0 points after 0 matches; Waalwijk are 12th (lower half) with 0. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Jong Ajax, last 5: WDWLL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Almere City FC, away. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game.
Waalwijk, last 5: WDDDD Their latest outing: 4–2 win over NAC Breda, at home. Scoring is no problem – 2.2 a game lately.
Momentum favours Waalwijk, collecting 1.7 points per game to 1.2 for Jong Ajax.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Jong Ajax 1.5 xG, Waalwijk 2.5 xG – a total near 4.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 76% and GG at 69%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Jong Ajax 21%, draw 24%, Waalwijk 55%.
Lower-risk option: Waalwijk or draw (79%) at 1.30.
GG/NG: GG (69%) at 1.40.
Price worth noting: Waalwijk to win @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 55%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Waalwijk or draw (79%, odds 1.30 – longer than our fair 1.27, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Jong Ajax 1–2 Waalwijk. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Jong Ajax21%fair 4.70 · @3.30
Draw24%fair 4.25 · @3.60
Waalwijk55%fair 1.81 · @1.95
4.00Expected goals
1.55Jong Ajax xG
2.45Waalwijk xG
69%Both score
76%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–29%
1–37%
1–17%
2–27%
0–26%
2–35%
From our goals model: Jong Ajax 1.5 – 2.5 Waalwijk expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Waalwijk to win✓
55%
1.81
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Waalwijk or draw✓
79%
1.27
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
69%
1.45
1.40
Draw no bet
Waalwijk (draw no bet)✓
72%
1.39
–
Asian handicap
Jong Ajax +1.5 (Asian handicap)✗
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
57%
1.77
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
–
First team to score
Waalwijk to score first✓
60%
1.66
–
Half-time result
Waalwijk ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Waalwijk / FT Waalwijk✗
37%
2.68
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.73
–
Recent results
Jong Ajax – last 6
WDWLLL
4 Sep
@ Almere City FC
1–0
W
31 Aug
@ Jong PSV U21
1–1
D
28 Aug
vs Helmond Sport
3–2
W
22 Aug
@ NAC Breda
2–3
L
17 Aug
vs Emmen
4–6
L
7 Aug
@ Dordrecht
1–2
L
2.0Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Waalwijk – last 6
WDDDDW
4 Sep
vs NAC Breda
4–2
W
28 Aug
vs Jong PSV U21
2–2
D
21 Aug
@ Helmond Sport
1–1
D
14 Aug
vs Dordrecht
2–2
D
7 Aug
@ Vitesse
1–1
D
2 Aug
vs Kifisia
3–0
W
2.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Jong Ajax and Waalwijk.
Our pick is Waalwijk or draw with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Jong Ajax vs Waalwijk?
On our numbers Jong Ajax have a 21% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Waalwijk 55%.
How many goals will there be in Jong Ajax vs Waalwijk?
We expect about 4.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 76% likely and both teams score 69% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Jong Ajax vs Waalwijk?
Our predicted score is Jong Ajax 1–2 Waalwijk, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.0 goals in total.
When is Jong Ajax vs Waalwijk?
Jong Ajax vs Waalwijk (Eerste Divisie) kicks off on Friday 11 September 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Sportcomplex De Toekomst.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
