MVV 59%Draw 18%Helmond Sport 23%Expected goals 2.08 – 1.22
64%
Betarazi pick
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.53 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.53Odds
1
Value bet: MVV to win @ 1.95 – our chance 59% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultMVV to win ✓59% · @1.95
Double chanceEither team to win ✓82% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗64% · @1.53
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.27
MVV vs Helmond Sport: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Helmond Sport travel to face MVV on Saturday 26 September in the Eerste Divisie, with De Geusselt the venue – the ball rolls at 19:00 WAT. In the table, MVV are 8th, upper half, on 0 points after 0 matches; Helmond Sport are 7th (upper half) with 0. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
MVV, last 5: LLDWL Their latest outing: 1–6 defeat to Waalwijk, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Helmond Sport, last 5: LWWLD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Den Bosch, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give MVV 2.1 xG, Helmond Sport 1.2 xG – a total near 3.3. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 61% and GG at 64%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – MVV 59%, draw 18%, Helmond Sport 23%.
GG/NG: GG (64%) at 1.53.
Price worth noting: MVV to win @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 59%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (64%, odds 1.53). Most likely score in line with that pick: MVV 2–1 Helmond Sport. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
MVV59%fair 1.71 · @1.95
Draw18%fair 5.54 · @3.70
Helmond Sport23%fair 4.29 · @3.60
3.30Expected goals
2.08MVV xG
1.22Helmond Sport xG
64%Both score
61%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–110%
1–19%
2–08%
1–08%
3–17%
2–26%
From our goals model: MVV 2.1 – 1.2 Helmond Sport expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
MVV to win✓
59%
1.71
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
82%
1.22
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
64%
1.56
1.53
Draw no bet
MVV (draw no bet)✓
72%
1.40
–
Asian handicap
Helmond Sport +1.5 (Asian handicap)✗
65%
1.53
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
61%
1.64
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
60%
1.66
1.50
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
1.20
First team to score
MVV to score first✓
61%
1.65
–
Half-time result
MVV ahead at half-time✗
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT MVV / FT MVV✗
36%
2.75
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.27
–
Recent results
MVV – last 6
LLDWLW
18 Sep
@ Waalwijk
1–6
L
11 Sep
vs Almere City FC
0–4
L
6 Sep
vs Roda
1–1
D
28 Aug
@ Jong AZ
2–1
W
25 Aug
@ KRC Genk II
0–6
L
21 Aug
vs FC Volendam
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
3.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Helmond Sport – last 6
LWWLDL
18 Sep
@ Den Bosch
1–2
L
11 Sep
vs Jong PSV U21
3–1
W
4 Sep
vs VVV Venlo
4–2
W
28 Aug
@ Jong Ajax
2–3
L
21 Aug
vs Waalwijk
1–1
D
14 Aug
@ Roda
1–2
L
2.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
100%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between MVV and Helmond Sport.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win MVV vs Helmond Sport?
On our numbers MVV have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Helmond Sport 23%.
How many goals will there be in MVV vs Helmond Sport?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for MVV vs Helmond Sport?
Our predicted score is MVV 2–1 Helmond Sport, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is MVV vs Helmond Sport?
MVV vs Helmond Sport (Eerste Divisie) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at De Geusselt.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
