Toulouse welcome Lyon to Stadium de Toulouse for a Ligue 1 fixture on Saturday 22 August (19:45 WAT). In the table, Toulouse are 12th, lower half, on 13 points after 10 matches; Lyon are 5th (upper half) with 17.
Current form
Toulouse, last 5: LWDLL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Hamburger SV, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 2.3 conceded per game.
Lyon, last 5: DWLLW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Fenerbahçe, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 3 lost from 5. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Lyon, collecting 1.2 points per game to 0.7 for Toulouse.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Toulouse 1.4 xG, Lyon 1.5 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 54%, GG 60%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Toulouse 37%, draw 21%, Lyon 42%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.60.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (77%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Toulouse 1–1 Lyon. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Toulouse37%fair 2.72 · @2.84
Draw21%fair 4.71 · @3.55
Lyon42%fair 2.38 · @2.30
2.84Expected goals
1.36Toulouse xG
1.48Lyon xG
60%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–29%
0–19%
2–18%
1–08%
0–26%
From our goals model: Toulouse 1.4 – 1.5 Lyon expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lyon to win✓
42%
2.38
2.30
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.27
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.65
1.60
Draw no bet
Lyon (draw no bet)✓
53%
1.88
–
Asian handicap
Toulouse +1 (Asian handicap)✗
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.85
1.75
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.40
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
1.15
First team to score
Lyon to score first✓
49%
2.04
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.44
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lyon / FT Lyon✗
24%
4.25
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.51
–
Recent results
Toulouse – last 6
LWDLLL
15 Aug
vs Hamburger SV
1–2
L
31 Jul
vs Real Sociedad
2–1
W
25 Jul
vs Rodez
1–1
D
21 Apr
@ Lens
1–4
L
17 Apr
@ Lens
2–3
L
3 Apr
@ Paris Saint Germain
1–3
L
1.3Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
100%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Lyon – last 6
DWLLWL
18 Aug
@ Fenerbahçe
1–1
D
11 Aug
vs Sparta Praha
3–0
W
4 Aug
@ Sparta Praha
1–2
L
29 Jul
@ Real Betis
0–4
L
24 Jul
@ VfL Wolfsburg
2–0
W
18 Jul
@ Slavia Praha
0–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Toulouse and Lyon.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Toulouse vs Lyon?
On our numbers Toulouse have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Lyon 42%.
How many goals will there be in Toulouse vs Lyon?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Toulouse vs Lyon?
Our predicted score is Toulouse 1–1 Lyon, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Toulouse vs Lyon?
Toulouse vs Lyon (Ligue 1) kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Stadium de Toulouse.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
