Value bet: Paide to win @ 1.70 – our chance 66% vs 59% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultPaide to win ✓66% · @1.70
Double chancePaide or draw ✓86% · @1.14
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.87
Paide vs Hegelmann Litauen: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Paide welcome Hegelmann Litauen to Pärnu Rannastaadion for a UEFA Europa Conference League fixture on Thursday 16 July (17:00 WAT).
Current form
Paide, last 5: DWDWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Hegelmann Litauen, away. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Hegelmann Litauen, last 5: DDLDD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Paide, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Momentum favours Paide, collecting 2.0 points per game to 0.7 for Hegelmann Litauen.
Head to head
When they last met (9 Jul 2026) it ended Hegelmann Litauen 1–1 Paide.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Paide 2.0 xG, Hegelmann Litauen 0.7 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 50%, GG 57%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Paide 66%, draw 21%, Hegelmann Litauen 14%.
Lower-risk option: Paide or draw (86%) at 1.14.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.70.
Price worth noting: Paide to win @1.70 – the bookmaker implies 59%, our ratings say 66%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (74%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Paide 2–0 Hegelmann Litauen. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Paide66%fair 1.53 · @1.70
Draw21%fair 4.81 · @3.50
Hegelmann Litauen14%fair 7.29 · @4.33
2.63Expected goals
1.98Paide xG
0.65Hegelmann Litauen xG
57%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
2–014%
1–19%
3–09%
2–19%
0–07%
From our goals model: Paide 2.0 – 0.7 Hegelmann Litauen expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Paide vs Hegelmann Litauen?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Paide vs Hegelmann Litauen?
On our numbers Paide have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Hegelmann Litauen 14%.
How many goals will there be in Paide vs Hegelmann Litauen?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Paide vs Hegelmann Litauen?
Our predicted score is Paide 2–0 Hegelmann Litauen, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Paide vs Hegelmann Litauen?
Paide vs Hegelmann Litauen (UEFA Europa Conference League) kicks off on Thursday 16 July 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Pärnu Rannastaadion.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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