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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Panevėžys v FK Tobol Kostanay: numbers & prediction

UEFA Europa Conference League · Europe · Aukštaitija Stadium

Panevėžys

LDLLW
1–1
FT

FK Tobol Kostanay

DWLWL
Panevėžys 30%Draw 36%FK Tobol Kostanay 34% Expected goals 1.29 – 1.25
76%
Betarazi pick

Under 3.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.31 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓

8/10Rating
1.20Odds
X

Value bet: Draw @ 3.25 – our chance 36% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Picks by market

ResultDraw ✓36% · @3.25
Double chanceFK Tobol Kostanay or draw ✓70% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–1 ✓13% · fair 7.86

Panevėžys vs FK Tobol Kostanay: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Panevėžys welcome FK Tobol Kostanay to Aukštaitija Stadium for a UEFA Europa Conference League fixture on Thursday 23 July (16:30 WAT).

Current form

Panevėžys, last 5: LDLLW Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Kauno Žalgiris, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 2.2 conceded per game.

FK Tobol Kostanay, last 5: DWLWL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Kyzyl-Zhar, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.

Momentum favours FK Tobol Kostanay, collecting 1.7 points per game to 0.7 for Panevėžys.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Panevėžys 1.3 xG, FK Tobol Kostanay 1.3 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 54%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Panevėžys 30%, draw 36%, FK Tobol Kostanay 34%.
  • Lower-risk option: FK Tobol Kostanay or draw (70%) at 1.30.
  • GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.91.
  • Price worth noting: Draw @3.25 – the bookmaker implies 31%, our ratings say 36%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (76%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Panevėžys 1–1 FK Tobol Kostanay. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Panevėžys30%fair 3.37 · @3.30
Draw36%fair 2.77 · @3.25
FK Tobol Kostanay34%fair 2.92 · @2.10
2.54Expected goals
1.29Panevėžys xG
1.25FK Tobol Kostanay xG
54%Both score
44%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–113%
1–010%
0–110%
2–18%
1–28%
0–08%

From our goals model: Panevėžys 1.3 – 1.3 FK Tobol Kostanay expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultDraw ✓36%2.773.25 ▲
Double chanceFK Tobol Kostanay or draw ✓70%1.421.30
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓54%1.841.91
Draw no betFK Tobol Kostanay (draw no bet)54%1.87–
Asian handicapFK Tobol Kostanay +0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓63%1.60–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓69%1.441.40
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓56%1.801.62
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76%1.311.20
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓89%1.13–
First team to scorePanevėžys to score first ✓47%2.14–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗44%2.28–
Half-time / full-timeHT Panevėžys / FT Panevėžys ✗22%4.65–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–1 ✓13%7.86–

Recent results

Panevėžys – last 6

LDLLWL
11 Jul@ Kauno Žalgiris0–3L
4 Julvs Hegelmann Litauen1–1D
29 Junvs Suduva Marijampole1–2L
23 Jun@ Minija1–2L
20 Junvs Šiauliai3–2W
16 Jun@ FK Zalgiris Vilnius0–3L
1.0Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5

FK Tobol Kostanay – last 6

DWLWLW
18 Jul@ Kyzyl-Zhar1–1D
12 Julvs Okzhetpes3–1W
4 Jul@ Altay0–1L
28 Junvs Altay3–1W
21 Jun@ Okzhetpes1–2L
13 Junvs Kyzyl-Zhar2–0W
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Panevėžys and FK Tobol Kostanay.

Panevėžys vs FK Tobol Kostanay head-to-head page →

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Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Panevėžys vs FK Tobol Kostanay?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.

Who will win Panevėžys vs FK Tobol Kostanay?

On our numbers Panevėžys have a 30% chance of winning, the draw 36% and FK Tobol Kostanay 34%.

How many goals will there be in Panevėžys vs FK Tobol Kostanay?

We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Panevėžys vs FK Tobol Kostanay?

Our predicted score is Panevėžys 1–1 FK Tobol Kostanay, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.

When is Panevėžys vs FK Tobol Kostanay?

Panevėžys vs FK Tobol Kostanay (UEFA Europa Conference League) kicks off on Thursday 23 July 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Aukštaitija Stadium.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.