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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

FK Tobol Kostanay v Panevėžys: numbers & prediction

UEFA Europa Conference League · Europe · Kostanay Central Stadium

FK Tobol Kostanay

WDDWL
1–1
FTPens 3–2

Panevėžys

DLDLL
FK Tobol Kostanay 61%Draw 22%Panevėžys 17% Expected goals 1.60 – 0.93
71%
Betarazi pick

Under 3.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.42 · bookmaker 1.42 · Won ✓

7/10Rating
1.42Odds
GG

Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.20 – our chance 55% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Picks by market

ResultFK Tobol Kostanay to win ✗61% · @1.25
Double chanceFK Tobol Kostanay or draw ✓83% · @1.04
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @2.20
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.55

FK Tobol Kostanay vs Panevėžys: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Thursday 30 July the UEFA Europa Conference League brings FK Tobol Kostanay against Panevėžys at Kostanay Central Stadium. Kick-off: 15:00 WAT.

Current form

FK Tobol Kostanay, last 5: WDDWL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Atyrau, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.

Panevėžys, last 5: DLDLL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with FK Tobol Kostanay, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.

Momentum favours FK Tobol Kostanay, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.8 for Panevėžys.

Head to head

When they last met (23 Jul 2026) it ended Panevėžys 1–1 FK Tobol Kostanay.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give FK Tobol Kostanay 1.6 xG, Panevėžys 0.9 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 55%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – FK Tobol Kostanay 61%, draw 22%, Panevėžys 17%.
  • GG/NG: GG (55%) at 2.20.
  • Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.20 – the bookmaker implies 45%, our ratings say 55%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (71%, odds 1.42). Most likely score in line with that pick: FK Tobol Kostanay 1–0 Panevėžys. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

FK Tobol Kostanay61%fair 1.65 · @1.25
Draw22%fair 4.57 · @5.10
Panevėžys17%fair 5.77 · @10.75
2.53Expected goals
1.60FK Tobol Kostanay xG
0.93Panevėžys xG
55%Both score
51%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–013%
1–112%
2–010%
2–19%
0–08%
0–17%

From our goals model: FK Tobol Kostanay 1.6 – 0.9 Panevėžys expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultFK Tobol Kostanay to win ✗61%1.651.25
Double chanceFK Tobol Kostanay or draw ✓83%1.211.04
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓55%1.822.20 ▲
Draw no betFK Tobol Kostanay (draw no bet)78%1.29–
Asian handicapPanevėžys +1 (Asian handicap) ✓63%1.60–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74%1.351.22
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✗51%1.971.70
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓71%1.421.42
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓89%1.13–
First team to scoreFK Tobol Kostanay to score first58%1.72–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✓43%2.32–
Half-time / full-timeHT FK Tobol Kostanay / FT FK Tobol Kostanay ✗32%3.11–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9%10.55–

Recent results

FK Tobol Kostanay – last 6

WDDWLW
26 Julvs Atyrau1–0W
23 Jul@ Panevėžys1–1D
18 Jul@ Kyzyl-Zhar1–1D
12 Julvs Okzhetpes3–1W
4 Jul@ Altay0–1L
28 Junvs Altay3–1W
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Panevėžys – last 6

DLDLLW
23 Julvs FK Tobol Kostanay1–1D
11 Jul@ Kauno Žalgiris0–3L
4 Julvs Hegelmann Litauen1–1D
29 Junvs Suduva Marijampole1–2L
23 Jun@ Minija1–2L
20 Junvs Šiauliai3–2W
1.2Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Head to head

23 Jul 2026Panevėžys v FK Tobol Kostanay1–1
FK Tobol Kostanay vs Panevėžys head-to-head page →

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Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for FK Tobol Kostanay vs Panevėžys?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.42.

Who will win FK Tobol Kostanay vs Panevėžys?

On our numbers FK Tobol Kostanay have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Panevėžys 17%.

How many goals will there be in FK Tobol Kostanay vs Panevėžys?

We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for FK Tobol Kostanay vs Panevėžys?

Our predicted score is FK Tobol Kostanay 1–0 Panevėžys, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.

When is FK Tobol Kostanay vs Panevėžys?

FK Tobol Kostanay vs Panevėžys (UEFA Europa Conference League) kicks off on Thursday 30 July 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Kostanay Central Stadium.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.