Aston Villa 57%Draw 24%Sunderland 19%Expected goals 1.89 – 1.07
79%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.22
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
Picks by market
ResultAston Villa to win57% · @1.70
Double chanceAston Villa or draw81% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score58% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals79% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–110% · fair 10.10
Aston Villa vs Sunderland: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Aston Villa welcome Sunderland to Villa Park for a Premier League fixture on Saturday 21 November (16:00 WAT). In the table, Aston Villa are 10th, upper half, on 13 points after 10 matches; Sunderland are 19th (in the drop zone) with 8.
Current form
Aston Villa, last 5: DLDLW Their latest outing: 4–4 draw with Manchester United, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 2.2 conceded per game.
Sunderland, last 5: WLLWD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Chelsea, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Head to head
When they last met (19 Apr 2026) it ended Aston Villa 4–3 Sunderland.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Aston Villa 1.9 xG, Sunderland 1.1 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 56% for three or more goals, 58% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Aston Villa 57%, draw 24%, Sunderland 19%.
Lower-risk option: Aston Villa or draw (81%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.70.
Betarazi verdict
The Betarazi pick is Over 1.5 goals (79%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Aston Villa 1–1 Sunderland. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Aston Villa57%fair 1.75 · @1.70
Draw24%fair 4.18 · @3.75
Sunderland19%fair 5.33 · @4.75
2.96Expected goals
1.89Aston Villa xG
1.07Sunderland xG
58%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
2–110%
1–010%
2–09%
3–16%
3–06%
From our goals model: Aston Villa 1.9 – 1.1 Sunderland expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Aston Villa
Sunderland
Attack vs Premier League average
+17%
-16%
Goals conceded vs average
+19%
+9%
Our expected goals here
1.95
1.19
Our own ratings from every Premier League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
What is the prediction for Aston Villa vs Sunderland?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Aston Villa vs Sunderland?
On our numbers Aston Villa have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Sunderland 19%.
How many goals will there be in Aston Villa vs Sunderland?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Aston Villa vs Sunderland?
Our predicted score is Aston Villa 1–1 Sunderland, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Aston Villa vs Sunderland?
Aston Villa vs Sunderland (Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 21 November 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Villa Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
