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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Newcastle v Arsenal: numbers & prediction

Premier League · England · St. James' Park

Newcastle

DLLWL
Sat 21 Nov 2026

Arsenal

WWWDW
Newcastle 17%Draw 24%Arsenal 59% Expected goals 0.82 – 1.71
74%
Betarazi pick

Over 1.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.35 · bookmaker 1.25

8/10Rating
1.25Odds

Picks by market

ResultArsenal to win59% · @1.57
Double chanceArsenal or draw83% · @1.14
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score56% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals74% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–210% · fair 10.47

Newcastle vs Arsenal: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

18:30 WAT, Saturday 21 November: Newcastle v Arsenal in the Premier League, played at St. James' Park. In the table, Newcastle are 12th, lower half, on 12 points after 10 matches; Arsenal are 1st (leading the league) with 27. There are 15 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.

Current form

Newcastle, last 5: DLLWL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Fulham, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.

Arsenal, last 5: WWWDW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Hull City, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Momentum favours Arsenal, collecting 2.3 points per game to 0.7 for Newcastle.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Newcastle 0.8 xG, Arsenal 1.7 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 56%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Newcastle 17%, draw 24%, Arsenal 59%.
  • Lower-risk option: Arsenal or draw (83%) at 1.14.
  • GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.80.

Betarazi verdict

We are going with Over 1.5 goals (74%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Newcastle 0–2 Arsenal. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Newcastle17%fair 5.83 · @5.50
Draw24%fair 4.22 · @4.10
Arsenal59%fair 1.69 · @1.57
2.53Expected goals
0.82Newcastle xG
1.71Arsenal xG
56%Both score
51%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

0–114%
0–212%
1–111%
1–210%
0–08%
0–37%

From our goals model: Newcastle 0.8 – 1.7 Arsenal expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Team ratings (Betarazi)

NewcastleArsenal
Attack vs Premier League average-7%+11%
Goals conceded vs average+17%-45%
Our expected goals here0.781.55

Our own ratings from every Premier League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultArsenal to win59%1.691.57
Double chanceArsenal or draw83%1.211.14
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score56%1.791.80
Draw no betArsenal (draw no bet)78%1.29–
Asian handicapNewcastle +1.5 (Asian handicap)67%1.49–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals74%1.351.25
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals51%1.981.73
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals70%1.421.44
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals85%1.181.17
First team to scoreArsenal to score first62%1.61–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time42%2.36–
Half-time / full-timeHT Arsenal / FT Arsenal36%2.77–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–210%10.47–

Recent results

Newcastle – last 6

DLLWLL
7 Nov@ Fulham1–1D
2 Novvs Everton0–1L
29 Oct@ Everton1–3L
25 Oct@ Crystal Palace2–0W
17 Octvs Aston Villa0–1L
12 Oct@ Coventry1–4L
0.8Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Arsenal – last 6

WWWDWD
7 Novvs Hull City1–0W
4 Nov@ Slavia Praha2–1W
1 Nov@ Liverpool1–0W
27 Oct@ Fleetwood Town1–1D
24 Octvs Everton2–0W
21 Oct@ Bayern München2–2D
1.5Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Newcastle and Arsenal.

Newcastle vs Arsenal head-to-head page →

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Arsenal10901+1027
2Brighton10712+1922
3Manchester City10703+821
4Liverpool10532+418
5Chelsea10514+316
6Everton10442+216
7Bournemouth10433+215
8Brentford10352+514
9Leeds10352+214
10Aston Villa10343-313
11Tottenham10334-112
12Newcastle10334-312
13Hull City10253011
14Ipswich10325-511
15Fulham10244-210
16Nottingham Forest10235-49
17Coventry10307-99
18Manchester United10154-58
19Sunderland10226-98
20Crystal Palace10217-147

More Premier League predictions

League hub
Manchester City Fulham 161%1.44X23%4.75217%6.25 1.9–0.9xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 63%@1.67
Aston Villa Sunderland 157%1.70X24%3.75219%4.75 1.9–1.1xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 79%@1.22
Bournemouth Nottingham Forest 150%2.00X25%3.50225%3.60 1.6–1.0xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 75%@1.25
Chelsea Leeds 151%1.80X25%3.60224%4.10 1.6–1.1xG 1XChelsea or draw 76%@1.22
Coventry Crystal Palace 145%2.50X23%3.50231%2.70 1.8–1.3xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 80%@1.22
Tottenham Ipswich 158%1.53X24%4.20218%5.75 1.8–1.1xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 65%@1.53

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Newcastle vs Arsenal?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.

Who will win Newcastle vs Arsenal?

On our numbers Newcastle have a 17% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Arsenal 59%.

How many goals will there be in Newcastle vs Arsenal?

We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Newcastle vs Arsenal?

Our predicted score is Newcastle 0–2 Arsenal, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.

When is Newcastle vs Arsenal?

Newcastle vs Arsenal (Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 21 November 2026 at 18:30 (West Africa Time) at St. James' Park.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.