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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Burnley v Notts County: numbers & prediction

League Cup · England · Turf Moor

Burnley

LDLLD
1–1
FTPens 4–3

Notts County

DLLLW
Burnley 51%Draw 21%Notts County 27% Expected goals 1.52 – 1.45
79%
Betarazi pick

Over 1.5 goals

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓

9/10Rating
1.22Odds

Picks by market

ResultBurnley to win ✗51% · @1.43
Double chanceEither team to win ✗79% · @1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.83
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.65

Burnley vs Notts County: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Saturday 8 August the League Cup brings Burnley against Notts County at Turf Moor. Kick-off: 15:00 WAT.

Current form

Burnley, last 5: LDLLD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Torino, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 2.2 conceded per game.

Notts County, last 5: DLLLW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Walsall, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.2 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Momentum favours Notts County, collecting 1.2 points per game to 0.3 for Burnley.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Burnley 1.5 xG, Notts County 1.5 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 57% for three or more goals, 55% for GG.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Burnley 51%, draw 21%, Notts County 27%.
  • GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.83.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (79%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Burnley 1–1 Notts County. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Burnley51%fair 1.95 · @1.43
Draw21%fair 4.68 · @4.35
Notts County27%fair 3.65 · @7.10
2.97Expected goals
1.52Burnley xG
1.45Notts County xG
55%Both score
57%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–111%
2–19%
1–28%
1–08%
0–17%
2–26%

From our goals model: Burnley 1.5 – 1.5 Notts County expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultBurnley to win ✗51%1.951.43
Double chanceEither team to win ✗79%1.271.15
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓55%1.831.83
Draw no betBurnley (draw no bet)65%1.53–
Asian handicapNotts County +0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓61%1.65–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79%1.271.22
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✗57%1.771.67
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓65%1.531.45
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓81%1.231.18
First team to scoreBurnley to score first ✗49%2.06–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗40%2.51–
Half-time / full-timeHT Burnley / FT Burnley ✗23%4.32–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9%11.65–

Recent results

Burnley – last 6

LDLLDL
2 Augvs Torino0–1L
29 Julvs Espanyol2–2D
26 Jul@ Ajax1–2L
16 Jul@ Real Salt Lake1–4L
12 Jul@ Columbus Crew1–1D
11 Jul@ FC Cincinnati1–3L
1.0Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Notts County – last 6

DLLLWW
1 Aug@ Walsall0–0D
18 Julvs Nottingham Forest0–2L
14 Jul@ Randers FC1–3L
11 Jul@ Viborg0–2L
4 Jul@ Alfreton Town5–0W
25 Mayvs Salford City3–0W
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Burnley and Notts County.

Burnley vs Notts County head-to-head page →

More League Cup predictions

League hub
FT Cambridge United2 Barnet1 152%1.75X25%3.70224%4.45 1.7–1.2xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 75%@1.30 ✓
FT QPR1 Millwall1 Pens 0–2 138%3.10X24%3.50238%2.18 1.5–1.2xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 75%@1.28 ✓
FT AFC Wimbledon1 Newport County1 Pens 5–4 148%1.66X25%3.85227%4.80 1.3–1.3xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 75%@1.22 ✓
FT Barnsley1 Wigan1 Pens 6–5 140%2.40X25%3.45236%2.74 1.5–1.4xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 77%@1.25 ✓
FT Bristol Rovers0 Peterborough1 140%2.42X24%3.50236%2.68 1.6–1.4xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 79%@1.22 ✗
FT Bromley1 Reading1 Pens 4–5 126%2.18X32%3.45242%3.10 1.0–1.9xG X2Reading or draw 74%@1.65 ✓
FT Burton Albion1 Blackburn2 135%3.05X27%3.30239%2.26 1.2–1.2xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 75%@1.28 ✓
FT Cardiff3 Swindon Town2 165%1.32X19%5.20217%8.40 2.2–1.1xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 63%@1.53 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Burnley vs Notts County?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.

Who will win Burnley vs Notts County?

On our numbers Burnley have a 51% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Notts County 27%.

How many goals will there be in Burnley vs Notts County?

We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Burnley vs Notts County?

Our predicted score is Burnley 1–1 Notts County, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.

When is Burnley vs Notts County?

Burnley vs Notts County (League Cup) kicks off on Saturday 8 August 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Turf Moor.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.