Swansea vs Birmingham: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 8 August the League Cup brings Swansea against Birmingham at Swansea.com Stadium. Kick-off: 15:00 WAT.
Current form
Swansea, last 5: WLWLD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Leganes, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 1 lost from 5. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Birmingham, last 5: DWWWW Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Barcelona, at home. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 4. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately.
Momentum favours Birmingham, collecting 2.3 points per game to 1.7 for Swansea.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Swansea 1.2 xG, Birmingham 1.5 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 59%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Swansea 31%, draw 25%, Birmingham 44%.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.67.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (75%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Swansea 1–1 Birmingham. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Swansea31%fair 3.24 · @2.88
Draw25%fair 3.98 · @3.45
Birmingham44%fair 2.27 · @2.30
2.69Expected goals
1.19Swansea xG
1.50Birmingham xG
59%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–110%
1–29%
1–08%
0–28%
2–17%
From our goals model: Swansea 1.2 – 1.5 Birmingham expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Birmingham to win✓
44%
2.27
2.30
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.69
1.67
Draw no bet
Birmingham (draw no bet)✓
59%
1.70
–
Asian handicap
Swansea +1 (Asian handicap)
72%
1.40
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
75%
1.34
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.96
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.42
1.35
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
1.12
First team to score
Birmingham to score first✓
52%
1.92
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.37
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Birmingham / FT Birmingham✓
26%
3.80
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.00
–
Recent results
Swansea – last 6
WLWLDW
1 Aug
vs Leganes
1–0
W
28 Jul
@ Merthyr Town
0–3
L
24 Jul
vs Udinese
2–0
W
21 Jul
vs VfL Bochum
0–2
L
18 Jul
vs Holstein Kiel
2–2
D
2 May
vs Charlton
3–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Birmingham – last 6
DWWWWD
31 Jul
vs Barcelona
2–2
D
25 Jul
@ Crewe
2–1
W
22 Jul
@ Burton Albion
1–0
W
15 Jul
@ Solihull Moors
3–0
W
10 Jul
vs Huddersfield
3–1
W
2 May
@ Portsmouth
1–1
D
2.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Swansea and Birmingham.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Swansea vs Birmingham?
On our numbers Swansea have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Birmingham 44%.
How many goals will there be in Swansea vs Birmingham?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Swansea vs Birmingham?
Our predicted score is Swansea 1–1 Birmingham, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Swansea vs Birmingham?
Swansea vs Birmingham (League Cup) kicks off on Saturday 8 August 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Swansea.com Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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Burnley1
Notts County1
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