Value bet: Burgos to win @ 3.50 – our chance 34% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultLas Palmas to win ✗43% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.35
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.91
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.31
Las Palmas vs Burgos: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Las Palmas welcome Burgos to Gran Canaria for a Segunda División fixture on Sunday 20 September (17:30 WAT). In the table, Las Palmas are 10th, upper half, on 20 points after 13 matches; Burgos are 3rd (among the top four) with 24.
Current form
Las Palmas, last 5: WDLWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Cadiz, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Burgos, last 5: WDDLW Their latest outing: 3–1 win over AD Ceuta FC, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Las Palmas 1.5 xG, Burgos 1.2 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 57%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Las Palmas 43%, draw 23%, Burgos 34%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.91.
Price worth noting: Burgos to win @3.50 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 34%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (57%, odds 1.91 – longer than our fair 1.76, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Las Palmas 1–1 Burgos. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Las Palmas43%fair 2.32 · @2.05
Draw23%fair 4.32 · @3.10
Burgos34%fair 2.96 · @3.50
2.70Expected goals
1.45Las Palmas xG
1.25Burgos xG
57%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–010%
2–19%
0–18%
1–28%
2–07%
From our goals model: Las Palmas 1.5 – 1.2 Burgos expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Las Palmas to win✗
43%
2.32
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.35
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.76
1.91 ▲
Draw no bet
Las Palmas (draw no bet)✗
56%
1.78
–
Asian handicap
Burgos +1 (Asian handicap)✓
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.97
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
–
First team to score
Las Palmas to score first✓
50%
1.99
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.37
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Las Palmas / FT Las Palmas✗
25%
4.06
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.31
–
Recent results
Las Palmas – last 6
WDLWWL
12 Sep
@ Cadiz
1–0
W
4 Sep
vs Leganes
0–0
D
29 Aug
@ Girona
2–5
L
22 Aug
@ AD Ceuta FC
2–0
W
16 Aug
vs Albacete
2–1
W
31 Jul
vs NEOM
0–1
L
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Burgos – last 6
WDDLWD
11 Sep
vs AD Ceuta FC
3–1
W
6 Sep
@ Oviedo
0–0
D
31 Aug
vs Real Sociedad II
2–2
D
23 Aug
@ Sporting Gijon
0–1
L
16 Aug
vs Cordoba
3–2
W
8 Aug
vs Cultural Leonesa
0–0
D
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Las Palmas and Burgos.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.91.
Who will win Las Palmas vs Burgos?
On our numbers Las Palmas have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Burgos 34%.
How many goals will there be in Las Palmas vs Burgos?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Las Palmas vs Burgos?
Our predicted score is Las Palmas 1–1 Burgos, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Las Palmas vs Burgos?
Las Palmas vs Burgos (Segunda División) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Gran Canaria.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
