Atlético Astorga vs Ourense CF: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 10 October the Segunda División RFEF Group 1 brings Atlético Astorga against Ourense CF. Kick-off: 15:30 WAT. In the table, Atlético Astorga are 17th, in the drop zone, on 7 points after 10 matches; Ourense CF are 10th (lower half) with 14.
Current form
Atlético Astorga, last 5: LLWLL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Amorebieta, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 3 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Ourense CF, last 5: DWLWW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Arosa, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Ourense CF, collecting 1.7 points per game to 0.5 for Atlético Astorga.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Atlético Astorga 0.8 xG, Ourense CF 1.2 xG – a total near 2.0. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 68%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Atlético Astorga 28%, draw 24%, Ourense CF 47%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.91.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (53%, odds 1.91 – longer than our fair 1.87, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Atlético Astorga 1–1 Ourense CF. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Atlético Astorga28%fair 3.55 · @3.30
Draw24%fair 4.10 · @2.90
Ourense CF47%fair 2.11 · @2.15
2.00Expected goals
0.82Atlético Astorga xG
1.18Ourense CF xG
53%Both score
32%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–116%
0–014%
1–113%
1–011%
0–29%
1–28%
From our goals model: Atlético Astorga 0.8 – 1.2 Ourense CF expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ourense CF to win✗
47%
2.11
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.87
1.91
Draw no bet
Ourense CF (draw no bet)✗
63%
1.59
–
Asian handicap
Atlético Astorga +1 (Asian handicap)✓
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
59%
1.68
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
86%
1.17
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
95%
1.06
–
First team to score
Ourense CF to score first✗
51%
1.95
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
50%
2.02
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ourense CF / FT Ourense CF✗
25%
3.93
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.92
–
Recent results
Atlético Astorga – last 6
LLWLLL
3 Oct
vs Amorebieta
0–1
L
26 Sep
@ Sestao River
0–2
L
19 Sep
vs Marino de Luanco
3–0
W
13 Sep
@ Basconia
2–3
L
5 Sep
vs Portugalete
0–1
L
29 Aug
vs Palencia CF
0–1
L
0.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Ourense CF – last 6
DWLWWL
4 Oct
vs Arosa
0–0
D
26 Sep
@ Amorebieta
1–0
W
19 Sep
vs Eibar II
0–2
L
13 Sep
@ Marino de Luanco
2–0
W
6 Sep
vs Basconia
2–1
W
21 Aug
@ Lugo
0–1
L
0.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atlético Astorga and Ourense CF.
What is the prediction for Atlético Astorga vs Ourense CF?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.91.
Who will win Atlético Astorga vs Ourense CF?
On our numbers Atlético Astorga have a 28% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Ourense CF 47%.
How many goals will there be in Atlético Astorga vs Ourense CF?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atlético Astorga vs Ourense CF?
Our predicted score is Atlético Astorga 1–1 Ourense CF, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Atlético Astorga vs Ourense CF?
Atlético Astorga vs Ourense CF (Segunda División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
