Value bet: Poblense to win @ 3.50 – our chance 32% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultLorca Deportiva to win ✓45% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.35
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.67
Lorca Deportiva vs Poblense: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
11:30 WAT, Sunday 1 November: Lorca Deportiva v Poblense in the Segunda División RFEF Group 3. In the table, Lorca Deportiva are 8th, upper half, on 13 points after 10 matches; Poblense are 11th (lower half) with 13. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Lorca Deportiva, last 5: LDWLW Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Real Murcia II, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Poblense, last 5: LWDWL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to AD Ceuta FC, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Lorca Deportiva 1.3 xG, Poblense 1.1 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 52%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Lorca Deportiva 45%, draw 23%, Poblense 32%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Poblense to win @3.50 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 32%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (52%, odds 1.85). Most likely score in line with that pick: Lorca Deportiva 1–1 Poblense. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Lorca Deportiva45%fair 2.23 · @2.00
Draw23%fair 4.29 · @3.00
Poblense32%fair 3.14 · @3.50
2.38Expected goals
1.32Lorca Deportiva xG
1.06Poblense xG
52%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–012%
0–110%
0–09%
2–19%
2–08%
From our goals model: Lorca Deportiva 1.3 – 1.1 Poblense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lorca Deportiva to win✓
45%
2.23
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.35
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.94
1.85
Draw no bet
Lorca Deportiva (draw no bet)✓
58%
1.71
–
Asian handicap
Poblense +1 (Asian handicap)✗
74%
1.34
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.74
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
First team to score
Lorca Deportiva to score first✓
50%
1.98
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lorca Deportiva / FT Lorca Deportiva✓
25%
4.03
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.67
–
Recent results
Lorca Deportiva – last 6
LDWLWD
25 Oct
@ Real Murcia II
2–3
L
18 Oct
vs Atlético Baleares
2–2
D
11 Oct
@ La Nucía
3–1
W
3 Oct
@ Castellón II
1–2
L
27 Sep
vs Castellonense
1–0
W
20 Sep
vs Intercity
0–0
D
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Poblense – last 6
LWDWLW
29 Oct
vs AD Ceuta FC
1–2
L
25 Oct
vs Peña Deportiva
1–0
W
18 Oct
@ Yeclano
2–2
D
11 Oct
vs Castellón II
2–1
W
4 Oct
@ Atlético Baleares
1–2
L
27 Sep
vs Valencia II
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lorca Deportiva and Poblense.
What is the prediction for Lorca Deportiva vs Poblense?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 52% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Lorca Deportiva vs Poblense?
On our numbers Lorca Deportiva have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Poblense 32%.
How many goals will there be in Lorca Deportiva vs Poblense?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lorca Deportiva vs Poblense?
Our predicted score is Lorca Deportiva 1–1 Poblense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Lorca Deportiva vs Poblense?
Lorca Deportiva vs Poblense (Segunda División RFEF Group 3) kicks off on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 11:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
