Xerez v Badajoz Prediction & Expected Goals (13 Sep) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultBadajoz to win ✓40% · @3.30

Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.36

Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗55% · @1.75

GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗81% · fair 1.24

Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗18% · fair 5.63

Xerez vs Badajoz: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

18:00 WAT, Sunday 13 September: Xerez v Badajoz in the Segunda División RFEF Group 4. In the table, Xerez are 6th, upper half, on 15 points after 10 matches; Badajoz are 4th (among the top four) with 17. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

Xerez, last 5: DDDWD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Estepona, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.2 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 5 clean sheets in that run.

Badajoz, last 5: WDWDW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Tenerife II, at home. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Momentum favours Badajoz, collecting 2.3 points per game to 1.2 for Xerez.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Xerez 0.7 xG, Badajoz 0.8 xG – a total near 1.5. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 81%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Xerez 35%, draw 25%, Badajoz 40%.
GG/NG: NG (55%) at 1.75.
Price worth noting: Badajoz to win @3.30 – the bookmaker implies 30%, our ratings say 40%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Not both teams to score (55%, odds 1.75). Most likely score in line with that pick: Xerez 0–0 Badajoz. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Xerez35%fair 2.87 · @2.20

Draw25%fair 4.02 · @2.80

Badajoz40%fair 2.48 · @3.30

1.50Expected goals

0.70Xerez xG

0.80Badajoz xG

45%Both score

19%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

0–022%

0–118%

1–016%

1–113%

0–27%

2–06%

From our goals model: Xerez 0.7 – 0.8 Badajoz expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Badajoz to win ✓	40%	2.48	3.30 ▲
Double chance	Either team to win ✓	75%	1.33	1.36
Both teams to score	Not both teams to score ✗	55%	1.83	1.75
Draw no bet	Badajoz (draw no bet) ✓	54%	1.87	–
Asian handicap	Xerez +0.5 (Asian handicap) ✗	66%	1.52	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Under 1.5 goals ✗	56%	1.79	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✗	81%	1.24	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	93%	1.07	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	98%	1.02	–
First team to score	Badajoz to score first ✓	41%	2.42	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✗	57%	1.74	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Draw / FT Draw ✗	29%	3.41	–
Correct score	Correct score 0–1 ✗	18%	5.63	–

Xerez – last 6

DDDWDL

5 Sep	@ Estepona	0–0	D
14 Aug	@ Portuense	0–0	D
17 May	@ Conquense	0–0	D
3 May	vs Ucam Murcia	1–0	W
26 Apr	@ Xerez Deportivo	0–0	D
5 Apr	vs Puente Genil	0–1	L

0.2Scored / game

0.2Conceded / game

0%Both scored

0%Over 2.5

Badajoz – last 6

WDWDWW

6 Sep	vs Tenerife II	2–1	W
20 Jun	@ Cuarte	1–1	D
14 Jun	vs Cuarte	2–1	W
7 Jun	vs Moralo	0–0	D
31 May	@ Moralo	2–0	W
24 May	vs Jaraíz	2–0	W

1.5Scored / game

0.5Conceded / game

50%Both scored

33%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Recreativo Huelva	10	6	3	1	+13	21
2	Don Benito	10	6	2	2	+5	20
3	Ciudad de Lucena	10	5	4	1	+7	19
4	Badajoz	10	4	5	1	+3	17
5	Real Betis II	9	4	3	2	+5	15
6	Xerez	10	4	3	3	+5	15
7	Mijas Las Lagunas	10	3	6	1	+4	15
8	Estepona	10	4	3	3	+3	15
9	Atlético Central	10	5	0	5	-2	15
10	Sevilla Atletico	10	3	5	2	+2	14
11	Linares Deportivo	10	3	5	2	0	14
12	Puente Genil	10	3	3	4	+1	12
13	Sanluqueño	10	2	4	4	-3	10
14	Tenerife II	9	3	1	5	-3	10
15	Marbella	10	2	4	4	-3	10
16	Antoniano	10	1	3	6	-9	6
17	Tamaraceite	10	2	0	8	-15	6
18	Las Palmas II	10	1	2	7	-13	5

Team

Pts

+13

-2

-3

-3

-3

-9

-15

-13

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Xerez vs Badajoz?

Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.

Who will win Xerez vs Badajoz?

On our numbers Xerez have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Badajoz 40%.

How many goals will there be in Xerez vs Badajoz?

We expect about 1.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 19% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Xerez vs Badajoz?

Our predicted score is Xerez 0–0 Badajoz, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.5 goals in total.

When is Xerez vs Badajoz?

Xerez vs Badajoz (Segunda División RFEF Group 4) kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Xerez v Badajoz: numbers & prediction